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Saturday, January 7, 2012

2012: Year of the Fish?

The offseason is, mostly, over. With just about 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, the only player of significant consequence still on the free agent market is Prince Fielder, with most in the industry believing it to be a race between two teams, the Nationals and Rangers, for his services. With so much resolved - and the Marlins roster seemingly set - why not take an early preview of the 2012 season, and what it potentially has in store for your favorite, and recently renamed, baseball team.

What Went Right

The Marlins set out with a clear goal: upgrade the pitching staff and the team's defense. Enter Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano and Buehrle replace the presumed to be retiring Javy Vazquez and the recently traded Chris Volstad.

In Zambrano, the Marlins get an exceptional starter who is - and I can't believe this either - 30 years old and entering his "contract season." A career .607 W/L%, 122 ERA + and 3 top 5 Cy Young finishes with the added bonus of having a chip on his shoulder and playing for a new contract? Sign me up.

Buehrle has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball, never failing to post 200 innings since his rookie year in 2000. A rotation that sorely lacked a left-handed starter now has a very good, and durable, one.

What Went Wrong

The Marlins were spurned by two incredibly high-profile targets: Albert Pujols (who reportedly received a $275 million offer from the Marlins) and CJ Wilson, who admitted the Marlins made the most lucrative offer to him. Both, ultimately, ended up signing with the Angels.

The first $100 million man in Marlins history, Jose Reyes, also brought with him some controversy, although not necessarily of his own doing. Incumbent short-stop, Hanley Ramirez, either gave his blessing for the move way back in September, is upset about the move or has finally acquiesced. In any event, the Marlins mismanaged their biggest free agent catch, arguably ever, by allowing the media machine to run wild on a favorite story: the perceived malfeasance of Hanley Ramirez. I believe - or at least I want to believe - that the Marlins had Hanley's blessings back in September, as the above reference Jayson Stark article states, and that this sudden "Hanley is unhappy" story simply resulted from members of the media needing to file something and turning to a tried and true standby of the moody afro-carribean ballplayer. Manny being Manny, Hanley being Hanley, guilty, even if proven otherwise.

What's Next

Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is still waiting for his citizenship to be sorted out, and it's expected that he'll be declared a free agent sometime this month. The bidding figures to approach if not exceed $40 million, and most outlets report the Marlins have strong interest, even at that price.

Juan Carlos Oviedo, formerly Leo Nuñez, will probably have his issues sorted out and if he is cleared to return to the United States, odds are good that he's traded to a team in need of relief help, as the Marlins bullpen seems set with Heath Bell, Ryan Webb, Mike Dunn, Randy Choate, Edward Mujica and Steve Cishek, plus whoever ends up becoming the "long-man" (my guess is Wade LeBlanc).

Emilio Bonifacio will start on next year's team, but where he'll play is still somewhat open for discussion. I would guess that the Marlins have him penciled in as their center fielder right now, but they've also said that they will give their former Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan, every opportunity to compete for a job, and if he shows the hitting stroke that won the 2009 RoY, the move may push Bonifacio to second-base and Omar Infante to the bench.

Are the Marlins Better

Simply put, yes. The Marlins added a player in Mark Buehrle who addresses everything the team needed. Jose Reyes adds excitement and a dynamic quality to the top of the lineup. If he retains the approach that won him a batting title in 2011 and Hanley returns to form, you have a truly historic left-side of the infield.

While the Marlins are improved, the division, especially if the Nationals add Prince Fielder, could be the toughest in baseball in 2012. The Mets expect Johan Santana to be ready for opening day, the Nationals just added Gio Gonzalez and could be adding Fielder and the Braves and Phillies are largely returning the same team that just won 89 and 102 games, respectively.

What the Marlins did this offseason was both sizzle and substance, and will certainly impact their win/loss totals going forward, but their free spending ways may now simply be only a way to keep up with the rest of the division.