Some Off Day Thoughts

Quick hit stream of consciousness stuff today:

- Fredi's probably firmly on the hot-seat now, but he shouldn't be. He didn't construct the bullpen, he didn't make his outfielders become historically unproductive - they have fewer combined home-runs (2) than Josh Johnson has RBI (4) - and he certainly didn't ask for post season expectations with a $40 million-ish payroll. Does he deserve some heat for bad bullpen management? Absolutely, but you can't demand champagne on a beer budget.

- The best thing the Marlins can do for the bullpen is give Taylor Tankersley another shot. There's a real need for a lefty reliever with Meyer on the shelf and Tank is putting up encouraging K numbers in AAA (11 in 11.2 innings pitched). Even more encouraging, 9 of those K's are against righties. He may never be worth the 1st round pick the Marlins invested in him, but if you get a strikeout reliever, especially a left-handed one, you have a desirable piece in the bullpen.

- Coghlan needs a helping hand. It's May 3rd and he still doesn't have an extra base hit, and he's racking up an alarming number of strikeouts (23 already after only 77 a year ago). There are some encouraging signs: his BABIP is incredibly low for a left-handed batter (.258) and he's still hitting a fair amount of line drives (22% a year ago to 24% now). Looking at that, eventually, you figure "something" gives and he turns it around. Still, this is quickly becoming more than a sophomore slump.

- Gaby Sanchez is a lot better than I thought he'd be. He's killing the ball right now and is nearly 1:1 BB:K. The defense is still a problem, and I think he profiles more as a DH than a National League first baseman, but he's really stepping up huge when I thought he'd do nothing more than keep first base warm for Logan Morrison.

- Mike Stanton needs a promotion. He hit his 13th homer today at AA; his on-base percentage is over .500, his slugging percentage is over .800. Quite simply, he's putting on a early 00's Barry Bonds type performance. There's nothing left for him to do at AA.

Stanton On Fire

Twenty year old wunderkind Mike Stanton is off to quite the start at AA Jacksonville: .338/.482/.800; no, that's not a typo, he's really on-basing .482 and slugging .800 for a tidy 1.282 OPS.

Over his last two games, he sent the minor league community into a frenzy with 5 homers in 2 games, including a 4/4 night.

This incredible tear hasn't changed the Marlins philosophy on Stanton, as beat writer Joe Capozzi blogs.

Now, there's no perfect science to making it "work" with a prospect. The Marlins have rushed guys with great results (Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis spring to mind), they've gone painfully slow with guys and gotten great results (Josh Willingham, John Baker) and then they've had it blow up in their face with Jeremy Hermida and, to an extent, Cameron Maybin, both of whom fall somewhere between rushed and slow-and-steady.

The Marlins are doing well to tread lightly right now; incumbent right-fielder Cody Ross has a track record for production and is a fan favorite. Chris Coghlan is the reigning rookie of the year, and despite his sluggish start is too talented of a hitter to bench or demote right now, and Cameron Maybin is a player that the Marlins have a tremendous amount invested in as he's the only truly long-term centerfield option in the organization; quite simply, they must see what they have in him. This depth just doesn't give Stanton a spot to even slide into the lineup.

Long term, Jorge Cantu's impending free agency and Uggla's 6th year arbitration award that should top $11 million means Stanton won't have to wait much longer for a job, but right now, there isn't a spot for the phenom, and that should tell you how talented this Marlins offense can be.

Time To Worry About Coghlan?

0-6; 1; 0.

Now, time for an explanation: 0-6 is pretty straightforward, it was Coghlan's line last night. The first time he got at least 5 AB's this season and did not record a hit.

The 1 is Coghlan's walk total this season, 33 AB'S, 1 walk...a tidy .176 OBP.

The 0 is Coghlan's extra-base hit total this season; 5 hits, all singles.

Yes, it's only been a week, and yes, if anyone had a 5/33 stretch in, oh say, June, everyone just calls it a bad stretch and moves on.

Here's the problem though, it's not bad luck, it's not a "slow start." Coming out of the gate cold does not mean a slow start, slow starts are usually associated with hard luck outs and players who are excelling in other areas offensively (say, hitting for power but no average, or walking a decent amount); quite simply, there's a difference between a "slow start" and a "bad start."

Coghlan's advocates, and believe me, I'm one, point to his 2009 when he wrapped up his first big league month hitting .219 over his first 66 AB's; however, this oversimplification neglects that despite only hitting .219, he was walking a ton en route to a .354 OBP in the same frame, and, ultimately, OBP is the key; it isn't 1977 anymore, people understand the key isn't recording hits, it's not making an out.

As far as the lack of power, Coghlan's not asked to be a power hitter, but when you bat lefty, call Sunlife Stadium home, and had your only road series thus far in cavernous Citi Field, it's hard to not luck into one extra base hit. What is most troubling, though, is that the way teams have attacked Coghlan have all been the same (and this is three now: the Mets, the Dodgers and now the Reds): soft stuff on the outside corner. What's more, it appears that the Marlins coaches are aware of this and yet, Coghlan's been unable to make the adjustment. It's easy for me to sit here and say he needs to cheat on the breaking ball, but every major league hitter knows he needs to honor the fastball. And, given the pendulum like nature of a left-hander's swing, lefties are traditional more vulnerable to an up-and-in fastball, so for Coghlan to exclusively look away would open, potentially, more holes than it would fix.

To be unequivocally clear: it's only 33 AB's, it's hardly time to panic and, really, the only thing to do now is hope that Coghlan can adjust to the new approaches teams are taking towards him. However, to call this merely a slow start overlooks what makes a player valuable, and what a player can do right that doesn't necessarily translate into the all too often used batting average stat, as, with Coghlan right now, the problems run far deeper than his .152 average.

2010 Preview: The Outfield

Part II of our 2010 preview focuses on the outfield. At this point, Marlins fans are pretty familiar with all three of the projected starters, but what kind of a blogger would I be if I didn't at least attempt to pass along some information.

Left Field

Chris Coghlan's going to open 2010 where he closed 2009: playing out of position in left field. The middle infielder turned corner outfielder out of necessity is the reigning National League Rookie of the Year based on a second half in which he paced baseball with a .372 second half batting average and a major league leading 113 second half hits.

In Coghlan, the Marlins have the ideal top of the order hitter: he gets on base, he hits left-handed pitching about as well as he hits right handed pitching (.385 OBP against lefties compared to .391 OBP against righties), and he doesn't strike out a whole lot. The only characteristic he lacks of the prototypical 1-2 hitter is speed: his 8 steals in 13 attempts (62%) is subpar, especially for a team that features a wealth of speedsters.

His defense in left improved as the season went on, and Sun Life Stadium is a notoriously difficult left-field to play because of the football lights causing most line drives to disappear on the fielder. Coghlan's long term future figures to be in the infield (he was drafted out of Mississippi as a second-baseman), but he'll be the left fielder for at least 2010.

Right now, he profiles as a singles/doubles hitter, but if he develops a bit more power to push his homer totals into double figures (he had 9 a season ago) the Marlins could have a leadoff hitter that's the envy of baseball.


Center Field

Fredi Gonzalez steadfastly claims that Cameron Maybin is not guaranteed a job, but, realistically, the team is not going to us Scott Cousins or Jai Miller as the full time center-fielder for 2010 unless Maybin is unable to play. Whether Maybin's current groin injury allows him to be the opening day starter is an uncertainty, but I would be absolutely floored if Maybin did not get at least 400 big league at bats in 2010.

Throughout their history, the Marlins have loved to have a center-fielder that covers a lot of ground: Chuck Carr, Devon White, Juan Pierre and now Cameron Maybin looks to continue the legacy of fleet-footed slick fielders. Of all the center-fielders in Marlins history, Maybin might have the strongest throwing arm (Mark Kotsay and Brett Carroll aside since they merely moonlighted in center), and he certainly comes with the highest expectations as a top-10 overall pick in a famously loaded 2005 draft.

Of the players taken in the top-10, Maybin's upside was considered second to only #1 overall pick Justin Upton, a true 5-tool talent in center field. Scouts loved his ability to hit for power and average, he set a North Carolina high-school record hitting .645 in his senior season, and his speed is hard to miss, both in the field and on the base-paths.

In the minors, Maybin has demonstrated a consistent ability to run, and run successfully, with 81 steals in 103 attempts (79%). Beyond that, the offensive game remains a work in progress. Since coming to the Marlins, Maybin has had extended stays at both AA and AAA where he walked relatively consistently, but that eye did not translate to the major league level, at least not yet. The real key for Maybin will be minimizing his strikeouts (388 K's over 4 minor league seasons). Cutting down the strikeouts will be largely reliant on how much shorter his swing becomes. With the Marlins in 2009, Maybin showed a violently fast yet very long swing that was the product of a pendulum like uppercut he had on pitches over the inner half of the plate. His K totals improved in AAA New Orleans, so maybe Cam has figured out how to control the inner half.

The power that was expected to come has yet to materialize. He's never hit more than 13 home-runs at any level, nor has he ever hit 20 doubles at any level. Suffice to say, that lack of minor league power is troubling. There are worse things than a speedy, singles hitting center-fielder who can cover some ground, but a player with Maybin's pedigree should be so much more.

In 2010, I look for Maybin to stick in the majors for good, and, if so, it will be the first time he does not split time between professional levels since high-school. Maybe all Maybin needs is routine. I think the days of his status as a super-star in waiting are done, but I think Maybin could turn in a .270/.330/.410 line in 2010, and really, for an incredibly up and down 23 year old, that seems somewhat encouraging.


Right Field

Fan favorite Cody Ross has been guaranteed a job, unsurprisingly, and unless Maybin does not break camp with the team, that job should be in right field. At the start of 2009, Ross was named the Marlins right fielder, but moved back to center after Maybin's demotion to AAA. Ross gives the Marlins a gold-glove caliber outfielder, and between Cody and Cam, outfield range should never be an issue. Given the number of fly-ball pitchers on the Marlins staff, that's great news.

At the plate, Ross has shown a propensity for extra base hits, and big hits in big spots. leading to ubiquitous chants of Co-dy, Co-dy. Originally viewed as the right-handed compliment to an outfield platoon, Ross showed in 2009 that he can be an incredibly productive everyday player regardless of the pitcher's handedness, although his lefty - righty splits show he clearly prefers hitting lefties as he posted a .959 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Cody has been mostly healthy the last two seasons, nagging injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career, and with that health have come two remarkably productive seasons. 2010 should be more of the same for Cody: 20 something homers, 30 something doubles and a critical bat in the bottom 3rd of the order.

The Fourth Outfielder

Brett Carroll's specialty is defense. His range is incredible and his arm should be legendary; you could hang laundry on his throws to the plate. If you ever wanted to see an unequivocal "80" on the 20-80 scout's scale, it's Carroll's throwing arm.

Beyond that, the man nicknamed BC doesn't have a lot of flash to his game. He came oh so close to being the first Marlin to hit for the cycle, he finished a double short in the same game rookie Sean West threw 6 no-hit innings, that, at least temporarily, teased fans as potentially the greatest game in Marlins history, but the offensive highlights mostly end there. He hits lefties far better than righties (.801 OPS to .589 OPS) but even then, it's hard to imagine he's capable of putting up that same kind of production if given a full season platoon role (he did it in just 66 AB's in '09).

BC is the embodiment of the major league 4th outfielder. He can fill in at any position, he can be the defensive replacement on the back end of a double switch (which is a Fredi Gonzalez favorite) and he can fill in for a week at a time in the event of injury. He's carved out his niche, and the Marlins appear only too happy to let him to continue to be the defensive whiz and Sunday starter he's demonstrated himself to be.

The Phenom

If you haven't heard of Mike Stanton yet, you will soon. The 20 year old right-fielder is demonstrating why he's considered a top-3 prospect in all of baseball, and why the Marlins made him untouchable two years ago in the Manny Ramirez trade talks. His torrid spring (2 homers, .444 average going into today) have kept him in the conversation for a big league job, but his limited experience above A ball (last year, he spent only part of the season at AA Jacksonville) make it incredibly likely that no matter how good a spring he has, at least a few months in the minors are in his future. The Marlins are aggressive in promoting players in season from AA, Sean West as the latest example, so do not be surprised to see him in Miami this year, just not much before June or July, if at all.

Logan Morrison's Rough Start Not a Cause For Concern

A season ago, few fans had heard of Chris Coghlan. The left-handed hitting infielder came to camp, had a number in the mid 80's on his jersey and turned in an 0-16 spring training.

Come October, Coghlan had turned in a truly memorable rookie season that was capped with winning the Rookie of the Year award.

A year later, Logan Morrison is in Marlins camp, wearing #81 on his back and competing (although we're going to use that term loosely) for the first base job with University of Miami product and a mainstay of the Marlins' system, Gaby Sanchez. Unfortunately for Morrison, he has just 1 hit in 18 spring at bats. The point isn't that spring troubles are the process for a heralded player to go through in the spring, phenom Mike Stanton is sporting a .444 average in 15 spring at bats along with a pair of home-runs, but rather that a dismal spring and a trip to the minors (which seems to be in Morrison's future) can still lead to wonderful results as soon as the coming season.

So for Morrison, who is by any measure one of the premier first base prospects in baseball, a trip to AAA New Orleans shouldn't be seen as a failure. He can enjoy Bourbon Street for a few weeks (or months) before Miami inevitably comes calling for the big lefty's bat.