Some Off Day Thoughts

Quick hit stream of consciousness stuff today:

- Fredi's probably firmly on the hot-seat now, but he shouldn't be. He didn't construct the bullpen, he didn't make his outfielders become historically unproductive - they have fewer combined home-runs (2) than Josh Johnson has RBI (4) - and he certainly didn't ask for post season expectations with a $40 million-ish payroll. Does he deserve some heat for bad bullpen management? Absolutely, but you can't demand champagne on a beer budget.

- The best thing the Marlins can do for the bullpen is give Taylor Tankersley another shot. There's a real need for a lefty reliever with Meyer on the shelf and Tank is putting up encouraging K numbers in AAA (11 in 11.2 innings pitched). Even more encouraging, 9 of those K's are against righties. He may never be worth the 1st round pick the Marlins invested in him, but if you get a strikeout reliever, especially a left-handed one, you have a desirable piece in the bullpen.

- Coghlan needs a helping hand. It's May 3rd and he still doesn't have an extra base hit, and he's racking up an alarming number of strikeouts (23 already after only 77 a year ago). There are some encouraging signs: his BABIP is incredibly low for a left-handed batter (.258) and he's still hitting a fair amount of line drives (22% a year ago to 24% now). Looking at that, eventually, you figure "something" gives and he turns it around. Still, this is quickly becoming more than a sophomore slump.

- Gaby Sanchez is a lot better than I thought he'd be. He's killing the ball right now and is nearly 1:1 BB:K. The defense is still a problem, and I think he profiles more as a DH than a National League first baseman, but he's really stepping up huge when I thought he'd do nothing more than keep first base warm for Logan Morrison.

- Mike Stanton needs a promotion. He hit his 13th homer today at AA; his on-base percentage is over .500, his slugging percentage is over .800. Quite simply, he's putting on a early 00's Barry Bonds type performance. There's nothing left for him to do at AA.

Stanton On Fire

Twenty year old wunderkind Mike Stanton is off to quite the start at AA Jacksonville: .338/.482/.800; no, that's not a typo, he's really on-basing .482 and slugging .800 for a tidy 1.282 OPS.

Over his last two games, he sent the minor league community into a frenzy with 5 homers in 2 games, including a 4/4 night.

This incredible tear hasn't changed the Marlins philosophy on Stanton, as beat writer Joe Capozzi blogs.

Now, there's no perfect science to making it "work" with a prospect. The Marlins have rushed guys with great results (Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis spring to mind), they've gone painfully slow with guys and gotten great results (Josh Willingham, John Baker) and then they've had it blow up in their face with Jeremy Hermida and, to an extent, Cameron Maybin, both of whom fall somewhere between rushed and slow-and-steady.

The Marlins are doing well to tread lightly right now; incumbent right-fielder Cody Ross has a track record for production and is a fan favorite. Chris Coghlan is the reigning rookie of the year, and despite his sluggish start is too talented of a hitter to bench or demote right now, and Cameron Maybin is a player that the Marlins have a tremendous amount invested in as he's the only truly long-term centerfield option in the organization; quite simply, they must see what they have in him. This depth just doesn't give Stanton a spot to even slide into the lineup.

Long term, Jorge Cantu's impending free agency and Uggla's 6th year arbitration award that should top $11 million means Stanton won't have to wait much longer for a job, but right now, there isn't a spot for the phenom, and that should tell you how talented this Marlins offense can be.

Stanton's Strong Spring Shouldn't Sway Marlins

Mike Stanton is having a huge spring, it's hard not to gush over it.

The numbers are stunning: .444 average, 2 homers, 8 RBI, more walks than strikeouts. Coming off an injury shortened stint in the Arizona Fall League where he was leading the league in average, it's clear the 20 year old wants to impress upon his club that he is ready to make the jump to the bigs. The Marlins shouldn't bite, at least not yet.

Stanton has had 1,003 minor league at-bats, a healthy total, but only 299 came above A ball (last season at AA Jacksonville). At lower levels, pitchers generally are forced by their parent club to hone a secondary or tertiary pitch, generally something off-speed, and hitters can thrive off seeing the subpar breaking balls or, even better, the fastball in fastball counts as young pitchers have little faith in their ability to control their secondary pitches when they need a strike.

This isn't to suggest that Stanton's numbers are a mirage or that he is not ready, I think it's plain to see his time in the minors is almost permanently at an end. However, Stanton could use the time to acclimate to seeing (and hitting) a 3-1 change up or a 2-1 curveball. While it seems insignificant, a player with a propensity for strikeouts, which Stanton is, really could benefit from an extended look at advanced pitching before facing Major League pitchers.

Further complicating things is the state of the Marlins' major league outfield. Stanton's natural position is right field, but right field houses the Marlins highest paid and most veteran outfielder, Cody Ross. Ross could slide over to center to make room for Stanton, but that would squeeze Cameron Maybin out, something that, at least at the moment, the Marlins should not consider.

Unless the Marlins feel that Stanton, or Ross, is the short term answer at first base (incredibly unlikely) there just isn't a job waiting for Stanton that wouldn't damage the long term outlook for the team as Stanton's playing time would come at the expense of Maybin which would leave the long term center fielder's job unsettled. To me, that's the same as taking a huge step sideways.

The Marlins are in an enviable position: they have a 20 year old corner outfielder who looks like he could be on the major league roster and not be completely overwhelmed, yet, at the same time, they have no need to promote him right; their major league depth is that strong. Patience, please, patience.

2010 Preview: The Outfield

Part II of our 2010 preview focuses on the outfield. At this point, Marlins fans are pretty familiar with all three of the projected starters, but what kind of a blogger would I be if I didn't at least attempt to pass along some information.

Left Field

Chris Coghlan's going to open 2010 where he closed 2009: playing out of position in left field. The middle infielder turned corner outfielder out of necessity is the reigning National League Rookie of the Year based on a second half in which he paced baseball with a .372 second half batting average and a major league leading 113 second half hits.

In Coghlan, the Marlins have the ideal top of the order hitter: he gets on base, he hits left-handed pitching about as well as he hits right handed pitching (.385 OBP against lefties compared to .391 OBP against righties), and he doesn't strike out a whole lot. The only characteristic he lacks of the prototypical 1-2 hitter is speed: his 8 steals in 13 attempts (62%) is subpar, especially for a team that features a wealth of speedsters.

His defense in left improved as the season went on, and Sun Life Stadium is a notoriously difficult left-field to play because of the football lights causing most line drives to disappear on the fielder. Coghlan's long term future figures to be in the infield (he was drafted out of Mississippi as a second-baseman), but he'll be the left fielder for at least 2010.

Right now, he profiles as a singles/doubles hitter, but if he develops a bit more power to push his homer totals into double figures (he had 9 a season ago) the Marlins could have a leadoff hitter that's the envy of baseball.


Center Field

Fredi Gonzalez steadfastly claims that Cameron Maybin is not guaranteed a job, but, realistically, the team is not going to us Scott Cousins or Jai Miller as the full time center-fielder for 2010 unless Maybin is unable to play. Whether Maybin's current groin injury allows him to be the opening day starter is an uncertainty, but I would be absolutely floored if Maybin did not get at least 400 big league at bats in 2010.

Throughout their history, the Marlins have loved to have a center-fielder that covers a lot of ground: Chuck Carr, Devon White, Juan Pierre and now Cameron Maybin looks to continue the legacy of fleet-footed slick fielders. Of all the center-fielders in Marlins history, Maybin might have the strongest throwing arm (Mark Kotsay and Brett Carroll aside since they merely moonlighted in center), and he certainly comes with the highest expectations as a top-10 overall pick in a famously loaded 2005 draft.

Of the players taken in the top-10, Maybin's upside was considered second to only #1 overall pick Justin Upton, a true 5-tool talent in center field. Scouts loved his ability to hit for power and average, he set a North Carolina high-school record hitting .645 in his senior season, and his speed is hard to miss, both in the field and on the base-paths.

In the minors, Maybin has demonstrated a consistent ability to run, and run successfully, with 81 steals in 103 attempts (79%). Beyond that, the offensive game remains a work in progress. Since coming to the Marlins, Maybin has had extended stays at both AA and AAA where he walked relatively consistently, but that eye did not translate to the major league level, at least not yet. The real key for Maybin will be minimizing his strikeouts (388 K's over 4 minor league seasons). Cutting down the strikeouts will be largely reliant on how much shorter his swing becomes. With the Marlins in 2009, Maybin showed a violently fast yet very long swing that was the product of a pendulum like uppercut he had on pitches over the inner half of the plate. His K totals improved in AAA New Orleans, so maybe Cam has figured out how to control the inner half.

The power that was expected to come has yet to materialize. He's never hit more than 13 home-runs at any level, nor has he ever hit 20 doubles at any level. Suffice to say, that lack of minor league power is troubling. There are worse things than a speedy, singles hitting center-fielder who can cover some ground, but a player with Maybin's pedigree should be so much more.

In 2010, I look for Maybin to stick in the majors for good, and, if so, it will be the first time he does not split time between professional levels since high-school. Maybe all Maybin needs is routine. I think the days of his status as a super-star in waiting are done, but I think Maybin could turn in a .270/.330/.410 line in 2010, and really, for an incredibly up and down 23 year old, that seems somewhat encouraging.


Right Field

Fan favorite Cody Ross has been guaranteed a job, unsurprisingly, and unless Maybin does not break camp with the team, that job should be in right field. At the start of 2009, Ross was named the Marlins right fielder, but moved back to center after Maybin's demotion to AAA. Ross gives the Marlins a gold-glove caliber outfielder, and between Cody and Cam, outfield range should never be an issue. Given the number of fly-ball pitchers on the Marlins staff, that's great news.

At the plate, Ross has shown a propensity for extra base hits, and big hits in big spots. leading to ubiquitous chants of Co-dy, Co-dy. Originally viewed as the right-handed compliment to an outfield platoon, Ross showed in 2009 that he can be an incredibly productive everyday player regardless of the pitcher's handedness, although his lefty - righty splits show he clearly prefers hitting lefties as he posted a .959 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Cody has been mostly healthy the last two seasons, nagging injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career, and with that health have come two remarkably productive seasons. 2010 should be more of the same for Cody: 20 something homers, 30 something doubles and a critical bat in the bottom 3rd of the order.

The Fourth Outfielder

Brett Carroll's specialty is defense. His range is incredible and his arm should be legendary; you could hang laundry on his throws to the plate. If you ever wanted to see an unequivocal "80" on the 20-80 scout's scale, it's Carroll's throwing arm.

Beyond that, the man nicknamed BC doesn't have a lot of flash to his game. He came oh so close to being the first Marlin to hit for the cycle, he finished a double short in the same game rookie Sean West threw 6 no-hit innings, that, at least temporarily, teased fans as potentially the greatest game in Marlins history, but the offensive highlights mostly end there. He hits lefties far better than righties (.801 OPS to .589 OPS) but even then, it's hard to imagine he's capable of putting up that same kind of production if given a full season platoon role (he did it in just 66 AB's in '09).

BC is the embodiment of the major league 4th outfielder. He can fill in at any position, he can be the defensive replacement on the back end of a double switch (which is a Fredi Gonzalez favorite) and he can fill in for a week at a time in the event of injury. He's carved out his niche, and the Marlins appear only too happy to let him to continue to be the defensive whiz and Sunday starter he's demonstrated himself to be.

The Phenom

If you haven't heard of Mike Stanton yet, you will soon. The 20 year old right-fielder is demonstrating why he's considered a top-3 prospect in all of baseball, and why the Marlins made him untouchable two years ago in the Manny Ramirez trade talks. His torrid spring (2 homers, .444 average going into today) have kept him in the conversation for a big league job, but his limited experience above A ball (last year, he spent only part of the season at AA Jacksonville) make it incredibly likely that no matter how good a spring he has, at least a few months in the minors are in his future. The Marlins are aggressive in promoting players in season from AA, Sean West as the latest example, so do not be surprised to see him in Miami this year, just not much before June or July, if at all.

Fredi's Outfield Comments Perplexing

Even on a day that was washed out by rain, the Marlins found a way to get me talking. Within this piece from the Miami Herald, Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez openly stated that only Cody Ross and Chris Coghlan were assured starting jobs in the Marlins outfield. Simple math and the process of elimination leaves one name ominously out in the cold: Cameron Maybin.

Maybin, you'll remember was proclaimed the opening day center fielder a year ago, struggled mightily through the start of 2009 and spent the majority of the season at AAA New Orleans. He came back in September, and seemed to demonstrate capability and a readiness to reprise his role in the opening day lineup.

That's why Fredi's comments are perplexing. Based on performance, no, Maybin doesn't deserve a guarantee; however, based on pedigree, expectations and overall importance, Maybin needs to start, and even more importantly, Maybin does not need to be constantly looking over his shoulder worrying if wunderkind Mike Stanton is going to take his spot in the lineup.

Could Maybin's groin injury play a role in this? Absolutely. The Marlins might feel that Maybin needs the spring at-bats, and if he doesn't get to a certain number of AB's, extended spring training and a rehab stint might not be the worst thing for Maybin, but think of the can of worms that opens.

Let's assume that Maybin isn't ready to go, Stanton opens the season with the big club and thrives, three weeks in Stanton's playing great, Maybin's ready to come back and Coghlan and Ross are healthy. Can you send Stanton down? Would you want to make that call? I sure wouldn't. Maybe somehow, someway, the convoluted first-base situation is somehow solved by this as the odd-man out ends up at first, and the Marlins just delay the inevitable outfield rearrangement that seems to be coming sooner than we expected given not only Stanton's hot spring, but also the organization evidently buying into it as more than just a spring mirage.

Competition is a great thing, lighting a fire under someone is never a bad move, but when the organization has so much invested in Maybin succeeding, making him now look over his shoulder before the regular season has even begun is not a great way to keep his confidence high.