A little late to the party, so I'm sure this is old news to everyone, but in case you missed it, reliever Jose Veras has been designated for assignment and infielder/outfielder/out-maker Emilio Bonifacio has been optioned to AAA. Chris Leroux has been recalled from AAA and Brett Carroll came off the 15 day disabled list to fill the newly opened roster spots.
The moves came after a closed door meeting following last night's game; the meeting was reported by both the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, with both characterizing it as a personnel meeting.
Thus far, it doesn't appear any other moves are forthcoming, and by all indications the meeting not only took place in manager Fredi Gonzalez' office, but with him as an involved party; still, keep checking that temperature under Fredi's seat, things may be getting hot in a hurry.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Time To Worry About Coghlan?
0-6; 1; 0.
Now, time for an explanation: 0-6 is pretty straightforward, it was Coghlan's line last night. The first time he got at least 5 AB's this season and did not record a hit.
The 1 is Coghlan's walk total this season, 33 AB'S, 1 walk...a tidy .176 OBP.
The 0 is Coghlan's extra-base hit total this season; 5 hits, all singles.
Yes, it's only been a week, and yes, if anyone had a 5/33 stretch in, oh say, June, everyone just calls it a bad stretch and moves on.
Here's the problem though, it's not bad luck, it's not a "slow start." Coming out of the gate cold does not mean a slow start, slow starts are usually associated with hard luck outs and players who are excelling in other areas offensively (say, hitting for power but no average, or walking a decent amount); quite simply, there's a difference between a "slow start" and a "bad start."
Coghlan's advocates, and believe me, I'm one, point to his 2009 when he wrapped up his first big league month hitting .219 over his first 66 AB's; however, this oversimplification neglects that despite only hitting .219, he was walking a ton en route to a .354 OBP in the same frame, and, ultimately, OBP is the key; it isn't 1977 anymore, people understand the key isn't recording hits, it's not making an out.
As far as the lack of power, Coghlan's not asked to be a power hitter, but when you bat lefty, call Sunlife Stadium home, and had your only road series thus far in cavernous Citi Field, it's hard to not luck into one extra base hit. What is most troubling, though, is that the way teams have attacked Coghlan have all been the same (and this is three now: the Mets, the Dodgers and now the Reds): soft stuff on the outside corner. What's more, it appears that the Marlins coaches are aware of this and yet, Coghlan's been unable to make the adjustment. It's easy for me to sit here and say he needs to cheat on the breaking ball, but every major league hitter knows he needs to honor the fastball. And, given the pendulum like nature of a left-hander's swing, lefties are traditional more vulnerable to an up-and-in fastball, so for Coghlan to exclusively look away would open, potentially, more holes than it would fix.
To be unequivocally clear: it's only 33 AB's, it's hardly time to panic and, really, the only thing to do now is hope that Coghlan can adjust to the new approaches teams are taking towards him. However, to call this merely a slow start overlooks what makes a player valuable, and what a player can do right that doesn't necessarily translate into the all too often used batting average stat, as, with Coghlan right now, the problems run far deeper than his .152 average.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Thoughts From the First Week
Seven days, six games and a ton of bad bullpen innings behind us, the Marlins stand at 4-2, winners of both series to start the year. As an historical footnote, this is the third time in franchise history the Marlins have had an opening series against the Dodgers, and the first time they've won the series ('93 and '95 being the other two).
Here are some stream of consciousness thoughts from the first week:
The bullpen is awful. Far worse than I thought, and I wasn't a fan to begin with. At least they are showing their shortcomings now, rather than August, so the team can go shop for upgrades (yes, I snickered when I wrote that as I'm sure you did when you read it).
Pitching usually comes in ahead of the hitting, so it is somewhat encouraging that our offense and our rotation are both looking strong. Volstad pitched well on Friday, ditto Anibal on Sunday; crazy to think the worst showing so far has been from JJ, and he'll turn it around, the illness in the spring is likely playing a role in the slow start.
I'm glad the out of town scoreboard is back in some capacity. I miss the teal tower, but Friday and Saturday were tough with the odd "ring" scoreboard. Now the upperdeck facade serves a greater purpose than reminding us the Dolphins' glory days are well behind them.
Here are some stream of consciousness thoughts from the first week:
The bullpen is awful. Far worse than I thought, and I wasn't a fan to begin with. At least they are showing their shortcomings now, rather than August, so the team can go shop for upgrades (yes, I snickered when I wrote that as I'm sure you did when you read it).
Pitching usually comes in ahead of the hitting, so it is somewhat encouraging that our offense and our rotation are both looking strong. Volstad pitched well on Friday, ditto Anibal on Sunday; crazy to think the worst showing so far has been from JJ, and he'll turn it around, the illness in the spring is likely playing a role in the slow start.
I'm glad the out of town scoreboard is back in some capacity. I miss the teal tower, but Friday and Saturday were tough with the odd "ring" scoreboard. Now the upperdeck facade serves a greater purpose than reminding us the Dolphins' glory days are well behind them.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Home Opener Is Here
After taking 2/3 from the Mets to start the year, the Marlins return home tonight to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2010 home opener. Chris Volstad gets the nod for the Marlins while Hiroki Kuroda gets the start for LA.
The opening series against the Mets might be too small a sampling to declare anything definitive, but some in Marlin land are already quite nervous about the bullpen. As bad as the pen was in surrendering a 5 run lead (and make no mistake, 9 walks is all kinds of awful); the guilty parties were two guys (Jose Veras, Renyel Pinto) who, to be kind, were not going to be very good this year anyway. Veras is on his 3rd team in a year and the Marlins spent much of the offseason desperately offering Pinto around only to find there was no interest. Leo Nunez is still the same guy who is either lights out or an iron mike machine, and the juxtaposition of Wednesday and Thursday reenforce that.
For me, the most troubling thing was how long Fredi stuck with relievers that clearly didn't have "it.". We carry 12 pitchers for a reason, use them.
Beyond the strategy of the situation, nothing that was done during the Wednesday meltdown was all that egregious, nor surprising. Hopefully it just means we see a lot less of Pinto and Veras as a pseudo-set-up staff.
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter: Twitter.com/firstplacefish
The opening series against the Mets might be too small a sampling to declare anything definitive, but some in Marlin land are already quite nervous about the bullpen. As bad as the pen was in surrendering a 5 run lead (and make no mistake, 9 walks is all kinds of awful); the guilty parties were two guys (Jose Veras, Renyel Pinto) who, to be kind, were not going to be very good this year anyway. Veras is on his 3rd team in a year and the Marlins spent much of the offseason desperately offering Pinto around only to find there was no interest. Leo Nunez is still the same guy who is either lights out or an iron mike machine, and the juxtaposition of Wednesday and Thursday reenforce that.
For me, the most troubling thing was how long Fredi stuck with relievers that clearly didn't have "it.". We carry 12 pitchers for a reason, use them.
Beyond the strategy of the situation, nothing that was done during the Wednesday meltdown was all that egregious, nor surprising. Hopefully it just means we see a lot less of Pinto and Veras as a pseudo-set-up staff.
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter: Twitter.com/firstplacefish
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
5 Thoughts from Opening Day
After a wonderful afternoon at Citi field (and really, it was wonderful until the score went final) here are some thoughts after allowing first impressions to sink in:
1. Hanley has really focused on continuing to improve his defense. His 2009 campaign aimed to end calls for a position switch, yet Hanley maintained in the offseason that he could get even better. After a strong throw in the hole (something he could always get to but seldom complete) and a spectacular diving catch leading to an unassisted double play, I am anxious to see if the defense sticks around.
2. A lot of our starters didn't get enough spring AB's and it showed. Only Gaby Sanchez was consistently working the count, and while it was Johan Santana, perhaps the best in the biz at making hitters look over matched, the Marlins gave away far too many at-bats after working them into hitter's counts. It's axiomatic to say pitching comes in ahead of the hitting, so let's reevaluate in a few weeks.
3. Cameron Maybin still has a lot of growing to do. I'll give him a pass for the 0/4 with 3 K's (all swinging....what appeared to be a garden hose) because it was Santana, but the defense cannot slump like that. Even he knew what kind of trouble he was having because by the end of the game, he was playing so shallow that he was practically playing infield. Have a rough day, that's fine, it happens, but you can't let it alter your game; that's a troubling sign that he'll over compensate to that degree.
4. Gaby Sanchez needs to work on his footwork to stick at 1B. His failure to stretch in the first for what should have been a double play lead immediately to an extra run on the David Wright homer, and he held the bag too much instead of reacting to the ball (on the second overthrow especially). We all know Gaby is a work in progress, but usually that implies some degree of progress actually being made.
5. Citi Field still needs some work. The warning track was whipping sand in the wind all afternoon; I was hoping an outfielder would show up on a camel. This was the first time I sat in the "VIP" seats in the lower level (my third time at Citi overall) and I was amazed by the amenities that go into the section, very neat, too bad no one working knew what to do and it took forever just to get a beer. I never thought I'd say it, but the ability and competence of our humble home field staff laps that of their New York brethren.
And let's not forget, the opener didn't come at home, it was on the road in front of a group of fans that was ready to turn into a lynch mob should the home team fall behind early; they went so far as to loudly boo the coaching staff, and, since they at least have a sense of humor, the training staff. Give the Mets credit for capturing that emotion and playing with a sense of urgency. They struck first, fast, and never looked back. Yes, both teams need a hot start to keep their respective manager's job safe, but the Mets had the added pressure of playing in front of a demanding group of fans that weren't even going to allow for an opening day honeymoon.
It's too bad there isn't a game today to get that awful taste out of our mouths, but when the schedule resumes, Ricky Nolasco will be on the mound to see if his torrid spring can carry over.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
2010 NL East Preview
In just about 24 hours, the Marlins, Phillies, Nationals and Mets will all be underway (and head to head with each other) officially kicking off the 2010 NL schedule; the Braves join the fun at 4 with a home opener against the Cubs. Before the 162 game marathon begins tomorrow, here is my somewhat detailed breakdown of the division:
1 - Phillies (Expected record: 94-68)
The Phillies are coming off back to back trips to the World Series (including a title in '08) and have only gotten stronger this offseason adding perhaps the best pitcher on the planet in Roy Halladay. Halladay did cost them, in a roundabout way, brief rotation stalwart Cliff Lee, so the Phillies lost out on assembling a potential juggernaut to instead have what should be one of the best two teams in the National League (St. Louis the other)
Key Player: Placido Polanco. Yes, we know all about Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, but Polanco is coming back to Philly to try to stabilize a position, third base, that has routinely been the Achilles heel for an otherwise potent lineup. If Polanco bring his typical mid-to high .300's OBP with him, the Phillies' everyday lineup will likely feature only one player (Jimmy Rollins) with an OBP below .330. Put another way: filthy.
What Could Go Wrong: Since their back-to-back World Series run, the Phillies have been the healthiest team in baseball by a pretty wide margin. Not only are they the only team to have lost fewer than 1,000 player DL days in that two year stretch, they're below 800. Now, their players aren't preparing their AARP membership applications yet, but Shane Victorino will be the only every day player under 30 in 2010, and he'll just sneak by at 29. The Phillies do have some tough players who have demonstrated a willingness to play through injury, like Chase Utley, but at some point, this remarkably healthy streak has to end. And, while the Phillies are exceptionally top heavy, their depth leaves much to be desired both on the bench and at high levels in the minors; quite simply, among the top 3 teams in the NL East, they are perhaps the worst equipped to internally address a prolonged injury.
Also, don't forget the bullpen. Brad Lidge is still down there, and while they upgraded the rotation considerably, they lost a bullpen ace in Chan Ho Park (I know, it feels just as weird to write it as I'm sure it is to read it) and in some order will have to count on Lidge, Myers and Romero a lot more than I think they would like.
Final Verdict: Unless Howard or Halladay misses substantial time, they're the best team in the division by a pretty sizable margin. This may be their final year of "dominance" as the Marlins and Braves are substantially younger and potentially deeper, but no team in the division can match the Phillies' lineup and, over the course of a regular season, offense wins.
2 - Florida Marlins (Expected record: 88-74, Wild Card winner)
The Marlins locked up Josh Johnson to a 4 year deal, and, somewhat surprisingly kept the entire 2009 team (save Jeremy Hermida and Nick Johnson) together for a front office mandated playoff run in 2010. While they didn't spend to bring in a free agent (every newcomer came in as a non-roster invitee) the core they have, at least on offense, is talented and still blossoming.
Key Player: Dan Uggla. The Marlins' highest paid player in 2010 ($7.8 million) will need to have a strong bounce back year after 2009 saw his average drop precipitously. If the eye he demonstrated in '09 carries over to '10, and the average can improve, Uggla could find himself with the NL All-Stars in Anaheim. More importantly, an improved season from Uggla gives the Marlins middle of the lineup depth behind Hanley Ramirez.
The Marlins 3rd starter (and whoever you are, please stand up) gets an honorable mention, but right now, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, Nate Robertson are basically the same kind of pitcher and it's not that one needs to step up, really, all of them do. However, if one does blossom into a complimentary 3rd starter to the Johnson-Nolasco dynamic duo, the Marlins really could push the Phillies for the division title.
What Could Go Wrong: Injuries are a concern, but the Marlins do have minor league depth in Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, plus not too far off Matt Dominguez, and a plethora of second tier guys like Brian Petersen and Scott Cousins. The biggest thing that could go wrong is Ricky Nolasco having another season where he walks no one but gives up a ton of extra base hits. If we see the Nolasco that gets pounded for 7 runs on 9 hits, as we did in much of the first half, this team is in real trouble. There aren't any pitchers in the pipeline ready to step into the rotation, and there are even fewer with the strikeout upside Ricky has (Andrew Miller is the only strikeout pitcher in the system above A, and even then, we know Andrew Miller).
Final Verdict: Uncharacteristically, ownership and the front office are making it known they expect a playoff run in 2010. As constructed, there is talent at just about every position, or waiting for a chance in the minors. Combining that organizational depth with all-world talent like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson makes the Marlins a potentially dangerous team in 2010.
3 - Atlanta Braves (Expected record: 85 -77)
The Braves are the talk of baseball this spring because of the talented youth in their camp, and legendary manager Bobby Cox announcing that this will be his final season on the bench. This combination of potential and nostalgia has made the Braves the sentimental pick for the NL Wild-Card among most writers and analysts.
Key Player: Troy Glaus. Glaus came to Atlanta after basically missing 2009 due to injury, and not only is he expected to rebound, he is expected to anchor the middle of the Braves' lineup as the righty power bat separating Brian McCann and Chipper Jones. Glaus has had to move across the diamond, from third to first, but the hope in Atlanta is that while he may not be familiar with the position, the typically less physically taxing "grind" at first may help keep him fresher in 2010. While his days as a 30 homer masher might be past him, if healthy Glaus should still chip in 20-something homers and a mid 800's OPS. Pretty formidable numbers.
What Could Go Wrong: The Braves are hanging a tremendous amount of expectations on two youngsters: Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. For Hanson, who had a marvelous rookie season highlighted by a 1.18 WHIP and 8.2 K/9, the expectation is that he emerges, at 23, as the staff ace, or at least the 1A behind Tim Hudson (who himself has injury concerns). If this Braves team had retained Javy Vazquez, yes, they'd be terrifying, but with Javy now in New York, the Braves are asking a lot out of Hanson with little track record to show it as a certainty.
In Heyward, the Braves have the widely regarded #1 prospect in all of baseball. His lefty swings have drawn comparisons to Fred McGriff, Cliff Floyd and....Hank Aaron. Wait a minute...Hank Aaron; yep, Bobby Cox said so himself. Now, I'm all for seeing the potential in a player, but a 20 year old, who has never hit more than 13 homers or 25 doubles at any minor league level, is expected to come in and be the new Ken Griffey Junior? In the limited AB's I have seen of Heyward, I see a strong hitter for average, but I don't see otherworldly power on a consistent basis. Whether the hyperbole meets reality is somewhat irrelevant: what is important to remember is that the Braves lineup is pretty bland, and much of the runaway hype for them as the presumed wild-card team is based on Heyward arriving with 30 homers in tow; something I just cannot see happening.
Final Verdict: Chipper and Hudson miss some time with injury, Heyward is very good just not other-wordly, and the Braves come up just short in their bid for the playoffs.
4. Washington Nationals (74-88)
The Nationals also had their fair share of spring publicity with phenom Stephen Strasburg tearing through the grapefruit league, many people, myself included, believe Strasburg is the best rotation pitcher the Nationals have, but he's beginning the year at AA.
Key Player: Adam Dunn. The big fella is in a contract year; he's expressed a desire to stay in Washington and the Nationals are taking a wait and see approach, mostly regarding his position switch to first base. Players generally play well when playing for a contract, and Dunn, who just missed extending his 40 homer streak last year when he finished with 39, should have another prodigious power season, driving the Nationals offense behind Ryan Zimmerman.
What Could Go Wrong: Well, they're not really aiming for the playoffs, and they're in year 2 of an aggressive rebuild through the draft (Strasburg) and free agency (Dunn, Ivan Rodriguez). The worst thing that could happen is keeping a non-essential piece of the core past the trade deadline trying to finish closer to .500.
Final Verdict: I like their staff, a lot. By far the deepest rotation in the East, and their second half rotation (Strasburg, John Lannon, Chien Ming Wang, Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez) is fun to think about, especially when you figure that for '11, Jordan Zimmerman should be back from Tommy John surgery. The future is very bright in Washington, but right now, they're still at least a year away.
5 - New York Mets (72-90)
Disaster probably comes up just a bit short when describing the Mets' 2009; they lost players to injuries, their franchise player (David Wright) openly criticized their new home park (and forgot how to hit for power), their assistant GM took of his shirt and offered to fight a top prospect, their GM accused beat writers of trying to take his job, and Johan Santana had to have surgery. All in all, not what you would call a season you can build off of.
Flash forward to 2010 and Carlos Beltran has had surgery, allegedly, against team wishes, Jose Reyes is out with what may be a thyroid issue (though no one's really talking) and they still play their home games in a ballpark that makes Yellowstone look cozy.
Key Player: David Wright. Baseball's former 'it' boy needs to recapture the power stroke that made him a key player during the Mets short lived renaissance. What's most peculiar about Wright is that his homers dropped, from 33 in '08 to 10 in '09, yet his doubles didn't change, his average didn't improve, yet he struck out considerably more over 120 (140) for the first time in his career. Some may call it an aberration, but to me, it's more than that, his power totals didn't improve on the road (8 all year), which is something you'd expect if the home ballpark is a problem, his doubles didn't improve, which you'd think to be the case if he's hitting balls that come up "just short" and he now really looks like a leadoff hitter when the Mets very desperately need a 3-hole anchor.
What Could Go Wrong: In honor of the Mets' 2009, it could more appropriately reworded as "what won't go wrong?" All kidding aside, before the season even opens, the Mets have lost two of their most important players (Reyes, Beltran) to the DL and their rotation behind Johan Santana has not gotten better. Since Adam Wainwright ended the Mets' 2006 season on a 3-2 curveball, this franchise has been snakebitten and unlucky, and it doesn't look like that's going to change this year.
Final Verdict: If Beltran were healthy, I would love their chances, but he isn't, and given the nature of his injury (hip labrum) and his style of play, you have to wonder if he'll ever be the same player again. Beyond that, Santana is spectacular, newcomer Jason Bay is solid, but there is so much bad hanging over this team, you really can't understate that. A slow start likely causes a top down clean-out, and with that kind of turnover, it's hard to imagine anyone on the team looking forward to the dog days of August as nothing more than the dysfunctional black sheep to the cross town Yankees.
1 - Phillies (Expected record: 94-68)
The Phillies are coming off back to back trips to the World Series (including a title in '08) and have only gotten stronger this offseason adding perhaps the best pitcher on the planet in Roy Halladay. Halladay did cost them, in a roundabout way, brief rotation stalwart Cliff Lee, so the Phillies lost out on assembling a potential juggernaut to instead have what should be one of the best two teams in the National League (St. Louis the other)
Key Player: Placido Polanco. Yes, we know all about Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, but Polanco is coming back to Philly to try to stabilize a position, third base, that has routinely been the Achilles heel for an otherwise potent lineup. If Polanco bring his typical mid-to high .300's OBP with him, the Phillies' everyday lineup will likely feature only one player (Jimmy Rollins) with an OBP below .330. Put another way: filthy.
What Could Go Wrong: Since their back-to-back World Series run, the Phillies have been the healthiest team in baseball by a pretty wide margin. Not only are they the only team to have lost fewer than 1,000 player DL days in that two year stretch, they're below 800. Now, their players aren't preparing their AARP membership applications yet, but Shane Victorino will be the only every day player under 30 in 2010, and he'll just sneak by at 29. The Phillies do have some tough players who have demonstrated a willingness to play through injury, like Chase Utley, but at some point, this remarkably healthy streak has to end. And, while the Phillies are exceptionally top heavy, their depth leaves much to be desired both on the bench and at high levels in the minors; quite simply, among the top 3 teams in the NL East, they are perhaps the worst equipped to internally address a prolonged injury.
Also, don't forget the bullpen. Brad Lidge is still down there, and while they upgraded the rotation considerably, they lost a bullpen ace in Chan Ho Park (I know, it feels just as weird to write it as I'm sure it is to read it) and in some order will have to count on Lidge, Myers and Romero a lot more than I think they would like.
Final Verdict: Unless Howard or Halladay misses substantial time, they're the best team in the division by a pretty sizable margin. This may be their final year of "dominance" as the Marlins and Braves are substantially younger and potentially deeper, but no team in the division can match the Phillies' lineup and, over the course of a regular season, offense wins.
2 - Florida Marlins (Expected record: 88-74, Wild Card winner)
The Marlins locked up Josh Johnson to a 4 year deal, and, somewhat surprisingly kept the entire 2009 team (save Jeremy Hermida and Nick Johnson) together for a front office mandated playoff run in 2010. While they didn't spend to bring in a free agent (every newcomer came in as a non-roster invitee) the core they have, at least on offense, is talented and still blossoming.
Key Player: Dan Uggla. The Marlins' highest paid player in 2010 ($7.8 million) will need to have a strong bounce back year after 2009 saw his average drop precipitously. If the eye he demonstrated in '09 carries over to '10, and the average can improve, Uggla could find himself with the NL All-Stars in Anaheim. More importantly, an improved season from Uggla gives the Marlins middle of the lineup depth behind Hanley Ramirez.
The Marlins 3rd starter (and whoever you are, please stand up) gets an honorable mention, but right now, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, Nate Robertson are basically the same kind of pitcher and it's not that one needs to step up, really, all of them do. However, if one does blossom into a complimentary 3rd starter to the Johnson-Nolasco dynamic duo, the Marlins really could push the Phillies for the division title.
What Could Go Wrong: Injuries are a concern, but the Marlins do have minor league depth in Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, plus not too far off Matt Dominguez, and a plethora of second tier guys like Brian Petersen and Scott Cousins. The biggest thing that could go wrong is Ricky Nolasco having another season where he walks no one but gives up a ton of extra base hits. If we see the Nolasco that gets pounded for 7 runs on 9 hits, as we did in much of the first half, this team is in real trouble. There aren't any pitchers in the pipeline ready to step into the rotation, and there are even fewer with the strikeout upside Ricky has (Andrew Miller is the only strikeout pitcher in the system above A, and even then, we know Andrew Miller).
Final Verdict: Uncharacteristically, ownership and the front office are making it known they expect a playoff run in 2010. As constructed, there is talent at just about every position, or waiting for a chance in the minors. Combining that organizational depth with all-world talent like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson makes the Marlins a potentially dangerous team in 2010.
3 - Atlanta Braves (Expected record: 85 -77)
The Braves are the talk of baseball this spring because of the talented youth in their camp, and legendary manager Bobby Cox announcing that this will be his final season on the bench. This combination of potential and nostalgia has made the Braves the sentimental pick for the NL Wild-Card among most writers and analysts.
Key Player: Troy Glaus. Glaus came to Atlanta after basically missing 2009 due to injury, and not only is he expected to rebound, he is expected to anchor the middle of the Braves' lineup as the righty power bat separating Brian McCann and Chipper Jones. Glaus has had to move across the diamond, from third to first, but the hope in Atlanta is that while he may not be familiar with the position, the typically less physically taxing "grind" at first may help keep him fresher in 2010. While his days as a 30 homer masher might be past him, if healthy Glaus should still chip in 20-something homers and a mid 800's OPS. Pretty formidable numbers.
What Could Go Wrong: The Braves are hanging a tremendous amount of expectations on two youngsters: Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. For Hanson, who had a marvelous rookie season highlighted by a 1.18 WHIP and 8.2 K/9, the expectation is that he emerges, at 23, as the staff ace, or at least the 1A behind Tim Hudson (who himself has injury concerns). If this Braves team had retained Javy Vazquez, yes, they'd be terrifying, but with Javy now in New York, the Braves are asking a lot out of Hanson with little track record to show it as a certainty.
In Heyward, the Braves have the widely regarded #1 prospect in all of baseball. His lefty swings have drawn comparisons to Fred McGriff, Cliff Floyd and....Hank Aaron. Wait a minute...Hank Aaron; yep, Bobby Cox said so himself. Now, I'm all for seeing the potential in a player, but a 20 year old, who has never hit more than 13 homers or 25 doubles at any minor league level, is expected to come in and be the new Ken Griffey Junior? In the limited AB's I have seen of Heyward, I see a strong hitter for average, but I don't see otherworldly power on a consistent basis. Whether the hyperbole meets reality is somewhat irrelevant: what is important to remember is that the Braves lineup is pretty bland, and much of the runaway hype for them as the presumed wild-card team is based on Heyward arriving with 30 homers in tow; something I just cannot see happening.
Final Verdict: Chipper and Hudson miss some time with injury, Heyward is very good just not other-wordly, and the Braves come up just short in their bid for the playoffs.
4. Washington Nationals (74-88)
The Nationals also had their fair share of spring publicity with phenom Stephen Strasburg tearing through the grapefruit league, many people, myself included, believe Strasburg is the best rotation pitcher the Nationals have, but he's beginning the year at AA.
Key Player: Adam Dunn. The big fella is in a contract year; he's expressed a desire to stay in Washington and the Nationals are taking a wait and see approach, mostly regarding his position switch to first base. Players generally play well when playing for a contract, and Dunn, who just missed extending his 40 homer streak last year when he finished with 39, should have another prodigious power season, driving the Nationals offense behind Ryan Zimmerman.
What Could Go Wrong: Well, they're not really aiming for the playoffs, and they're in year 2 of an aggressive rebuild through the draft (Strasburg) and free agency (Dunn, Ivan Rodriguez). The worst thing that could happen is keeping a non-essential piece of the core past the trade deadline trying to finish closer to .500.
Final Verdict: I like their staff, a lot. By far the deepest rotation in the East, and their second half rotation (Strasburg, John Lannon, Chien Ming Wang, Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez) is fun to think about, especially when you figure that for '11, Jordan Zimmerman should be back from Tommy John surgery. The future is very bright in Washington, but right now, they're still at least a year away.
5 - New York Mets (72-90)
Disaster probably comes up just a bit short when describing the Mets' 2009; they lost players to injuries, their franchise player (David Wright) openly criticized their new home park (and forgot how to hit for power), their assistant GM took of his shirt and offered to fight a top prospect, their GM accused beat writers of trying to take his job, and Johan Santana had to have surgery. All in all, not what you would call a season you can build off of.
Flash forward to 2010 and Carlos Beltran has had surgery, allegedly, against team wishes, Jose Reyes is out with what may be a thyroid issue (though no one's really talking) and they still play their home games in a ballpark that makes Yellowstone look cozy.
Key Player: David Wright. Baseball's former 'it' boy needs to recapture the power stroke that made him a key player during the Mets short lived renaissance. What's most peculiar about Wright is that his homers dropped, from 33 in '08 to 10 in '09, yet his doubles didn't change, his average didn't improve, yet he struck out considerably more over 120 (140) for the first time in his career. Some may call it an aberration, but to me, it's more than that, his power totals didn't improve on the road (8 all year), which is something you'd expect if the home ballpark is a problem, his doubles didn't improve, which you'd think to be the case if he's hitting balls that come up "just short" and he now really looks like a leadoff hitter when the Mets very desperately need a 3-hole anchor.
What Could Go Wrong: In honor of the Mets' 2009, it could more appropriately reworded as "what won't go wrong?" All kidding aside, before the season even opens, the Mets have lost two of their most important players (Reyes, Beltran) to the DL and their rotation behind Johan Santana has not gotten better. Since Adam Wainwright ended the Mets' 2006 season on a 3-2 curveball, this franchise has been snakebitten and unlucky, and it doesn't look like that's going to change this year.
Final Verdict: If Beltran were healthy, I would love their chances, but he isn't, and given the nature of his injury (hip labrum) and his style of play, you have to wonder if he'll ever be the same player again. Beyond that, Santana is spectacular, newcomer Jason Bay is solid, but there is so much bad hanging over this team, you really can't understate that. A slow start likely causes a top down clean-out, and with that kind of turnover, it's hard to imagine anyone on the team looking forward to the dog days of August as nothing more than the dysfunctional black sheep to the cross town Yankees.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Spring Training Officially A Wrap
And just like that, 7 weeks of training are done and the regular season beckons. Tomorrow the Yankees and Red Sox kick it off in primetime in Boston in what should be a scintillating start to the 2010 season.
On the home front, the Marlins ended the spring today in a loss against their Greensboro affiliate that saw Anibal Sanchez have a rough outing punctuated by a Kyle Skipworth (remember him?) homer. The team will head to New York tonight to prepare for their Monday opener with the Mets.
Continuing an unfortunately ongoing theme, the Marlins had to DL reliever Brian Sanches and still wait with bated breath to see if Cody Ross can go on Monday.
Tomorrow I hope to have a comprehensive NL East preview up (as a follow up to my MLB preview) to have everyone really get in the mood for opening day.
On the home front, the Marlins ended the spring today in a loss against their Greensboro affiliate that saw Anibal Sanchez have a rough outing punctuated by a Kyle Skipworth (remember him?) homer. The team will head to New York tonight to prepare for their Monday opener with the Mets.
Continuing an unfortunately ongoing theme, the Marlins had to DL reliever Brian Sanches and still wait with bated breath to see if Cody Ross can go on Monday.
Tomorrow I hope to have a comprehensive NL East preview up (as a follow up to my MLB preview) to have everyone really get in the mood for opening day.
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