Here’s the first, but hopefully not last, first place fish "I watch too much baseball" MLB power rankings list:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
The most athletic team in baseball, and it’s not even close.
2. New York Yankees
Robinson Cano (MLB leading .376 average) is trying to make a case that, on a team loaded with stars, he might be the most overlooked.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
They’re 8-2 in their last ten, 10-1 at home and they have the best player in baseball. Things look pretty good in St. Louis.
4. Minnesota Twins
The new M&M boys (Mauer and Morneau) are laying waste to the AL Central. When Mauer (1 homer) really kicks into gear, this could become a laugher.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Think Roy Halladay (5-1, 0.88 WHIP) misses the AL East? Yeah, me neither.
6. San Diego Padres
The surprise team of baseball’s first month. Their strong pitching and their home ballpark mean this may be more than a one month mirage.
7. San Francisco Giants
Nobody can match their foursome of Lincecum, Zito, Cain and Sanchez. The problem is, most teams can boast a better middle of the order.
8. New York Mets
Their series loss to Philadelphia could not be more deflating – they lost to Halladay and watched Santana implode – but they still got off to a needed hot start. That has everyone in Queens feeling, and playing, a little looser.
9. Detroit Tigers
With the way 2009 ended, no player needed a demon exorcising start more than Miguel Cabrera. Good thing he got it (1.066 OPS).
10. Washington Nationals
Break up the Nats! Their negative run differential (-17) suggests this may be smoke and mirrors, but the talent they’ve been collecting is finally starting to shine (even if they’re being carried by the ageless Livan Hernandez and his 0.99 ERA).
11. Toronto Blue Jays
The Vernon Wells renaissance (.321/.387/.660) has everyone north of the border buzzing. The emergence of 25 year old Ricky Romero has some thinking this could be the start of something big.
12. Chicago Cubs
Don’t let the loosing record fool you, they have scored 131 runs (more than the 1st place Cardinals). They just need pitching, which slowly seems to be rounding into form as they get healthier.
13. Texas Rangers
Can anyone make sense of the AL West? Good, I can’t either. The Rangers, 7-3 in their last ten, seem to be the only team that actually wants to win this thing.
14. Cincinnati Reds
My pick to drop quickly in the standings. Their home park doesn’t make it easy to pitch, and losing Edison Volquez for a banned substance suspension won’t help much either. They’re also a tremendous smoke-and-mirrors team as they’ve allowed 29 more runs than they’ve scored, not a good bet to keep hanging around .500.
15. Florida Marlins
Bad bullpen, untimely hitting and a propensity to swing for the fences has a lot of people wondering how much longer the Marlins coaching staff is going to remain in Miami.
16. Colorado Rockies
Ubaldo Jiminez has 6 wins, causing some to wonder if 25 is in play. The rest of the staff combines for 5 wins, causing me to wonder if a .500 is even in play.
17. Boston Red Sox
For all the doom and gloom about how the pitching and defense isn’t working, they’re 6-4 in their last ten without much offense to speak of, at least by American League standards.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Webb is about a month or so from returning. That’s good news for the team that has allowed the most runs in the NL West.
19. Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Kemp’s clashing with the front-office. Manny and Rafael Furcal are on the disabled list. It looks like, for the first time since 1996, Joe Torre won’t be managing in the playoffs.
20. Atlanta Braves
Pathetic production from the top of their order has the Braves wasting a prodigious start from much hyped Jason Heyward, who is absolutely worth watching.
21. Kansas City Royals
Zach Greinke (0-3; 0.98 WHIP) has to be the unluckiest man in baseball. If the Royals keeps struggling – and really, who expects otherwise – Joakim Soria (14.33 K/9) could find himself as the most desirable player on the trade market.
22. Milwaukee Brewers
Did any player have more to gain from Ryan Howard’s ridiculous contract extension than Prince Fielder? The man may have played his way out of Milwaukee’s budget.
23. Chicago White Sox
The amalgamation of talent hasn’t worked, yet. Juan Pierre and Jake Peavy are off to incredibly slow starts. At least Peavy leads the team in strikeouts (31).
24. Cleveland Indians
Has any “star player” fallen more in the last two years than Grady Sizemore? Coming off a .788 OPS 2009, I don’t know what’s worse, the .284 OBP, his zero homers, or that the team still has $21.5 million remaining on his contract.
25. Oakland A’s
3-7 in their last 10 and staring at .500. Oakland is notorious for turning it on once the summer starts, but with Brett Anderson on the DL, you wonder who will lead the charge.
26. Los Angeles Angels
I think it’s safe to say the Angles miss former staff ace John Lacky. They have an AL worst 5.25 team ERA.
27. Pittsburgh Pirates
It looks like another long summer for Pirates fans. The offense is anemic and the pitching is atrocious. On the bright side, Pedro Alvarez is off to a solid start in AAA Indianapolis (.260/.333/.500)
28. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners don’t like runs. They have the second best team ERA in the AL (3.28), the second lowest team OBP (.309) and the fewest runs scored 88. If the pitching keeps up, eventually an offense with Ichiro in it has to come around, right?
29. Houston Astros
A team that should have been torn down at least a year ago looks to limp towards a 70 win finish, which, coincidentally, might be the average age of their players.
30. Baltimore Orioles
Fear not Orioles fans, Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters look like the kind of battery you want to build around for a long time.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Monday, May 3, 2010
Some Off Day Thoughts
Quick hit stream of consciousness stuff today:
- Fredi's probably firmly on the hot-seat now, but he shouldn't be. He didn't construct the bullpen, he didn't make his outfielders become historically unproductive - they have fewer combined home-runs (2) than Josh Johnson has RBI (4) - and he certainly didn't ask for post season expectations with a $40 million-ish payroll. Does he deserve some heat for bad bullpen management? Absolutely, but you can't demand champagne on a beer budget.
- The best thing the Marlins can do for the bullpen is give Taylor Tankersley another shot. There's a real need for a lefty reliever with Meyer on the shelf and Tank is putting up encouraging K numbers in AAA (11 in 11.2 innings pitched). Even more encouraging, 9 of those K's are against righties. He may never be worth the 1st round pick the Marlins invested in him, but if you get a strikeout reliever, especially a left-handed one, you have a desirable piece in the bullpen.
- Coghlan needs a helping hand. It's May 3rd and he still doesn't have an extra base hit, and he's racking up an alarming number of strikeouts (23 already after only 77 a year ago). There are some encouraging signs: his BABIP is incredibly low for a left-handed batter (.258) and he's still hitting a fair amount of line drives (22% a year ago to 24% now). Looking at that, eventually, you figure "something" gives and he turns it around. Still, this is quickly becoming more than a sophomore slump.
- Gaby Sanchez is a lot better than I thought he'd be. He's killing the ball right now and is nearly 1:1 BB:K. The defense is still a problem, and I think he profiles more as a DH than a National League first baseman, but he's really stepping up huge when I thought he'd do nothing more than keep first base warm for Logan Morrison.
- Mike Stanton needs a promotion. He hit his 13th homer today at AA; his on-base percentage is over .500, his slugging percentage is over .800. Quite simply, he's putting on a early 00's Barry Bonds type performance. There's nothing left for him to do at AA.
- Fredi's probably firmly on the hot-seat now, but he shouldn't be. He didn't construct the bullpen, he didn't make his outfielders become historically unproductive - they have fewer combined home-runs (2) than Josh Johnson has RBI (4) - and he certainly didn't ask for post season expectations with a $40 million-ish payroll. Does he deserve some heat for bad bullpen management? Absolutely, but you can't demand champagne on a beer budget.
- The best thing the Marlins can do for the bullpen is give Taylor Tankersley another shot. There's a real need for a lefty reliever with Meyer on the shelf and Tank is putting up encouraging K numbers in AAA (11 in 11.2 innings pitched). Even more encouraging, 9 of those K's are against righties. He may never be worth the 1st round pick the Marlins invested in him, but if you get a strikeout reliever, especially a left-handed one, you have a desirable piece in the bullpen.
- Coghlan needs a helping hand. It's May 3rd and he still doesn't have an extra base hit, and he's racking up an alarming number of strikeouts (23 already after only 77 a year ago). There are some encouraging signs: his BABIP is incredibly low for a left-handed batter (.258) and he's still hitting a fair amount of line drives (22% a year ago to 24% now). Looking at that, eventually, you figure "something" gives and he turns it around. Still, this is quickly becoming more than a sophomore slump.
- Gaby Sanchez is a lot better than I thought he'd be. He's killing the ball right now and is nearly 1:1 BB:K. The defense is still a problem, and I think he profiles more as a DH than a National League first baseman, but he's really stepping up huge when I thought he'd do nothing more than keep first base warm for Logan Morrison.
- Mike Stanton needs a promotion. He hit his 13th homer today at AA; his on-base percentage is over .500, his slugging percentage is over .800. Quite simply, he's putting on a early 00's Barry Bonds type performance. There's nothing left for him to do at AA.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
The Great Marlins What If
The Marlins have seen many great players come, and especially go, in their 15 years of existence, but no event is more famous than the great teardown after the 1997 World Series. Even today, a healthy number of regulars from that squad still have a major league job, so, naturally, I couldn’t help but wonder what would the state of the Marlins be had that team been given a fair chance at defending their title. To me, the ’97 fire sale may not simply be the biggest event in Marlins history, but also one of the three or four most important events in baseball over the last two decades. The fire sale directly fueled two World Series berths for National League teams (’98 Padres, ’00 Mets) accounted for an 18 game improvement in a perennial mid 90’s division power (Astros) and, for all intents and purposes, created an opportunity for not one but two future World Series MVP’s to prove their worth (Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell). Here’s my take on how the baseball landscape would have changed had the ’97 team been given a chance to defend their title.
Several assumptions have to be made: 1) the Marlins would still have to pare payroll from ’97-’98, 2) Dave Dombrowski, Jim Leyland and the scouting department would not be dismissed to pare payroll, and 3) for the life of the long term deals negotiated prior to ’97, the Marlins would not be major players in free agency.
First, in terms of cutting payroll, perhaps the safest casualty to assume would be Kevin Brown. He was a mercenary in Florida, his agent was Scott Boras and his walk year was ’98. Assuming the Marlins and Dave Dombrowski come to the same conclusion: that the Padres were the best fit for a Brown trade, and that the Marlins don’t play a game of hardball to get the prospect they really wanted from the Padres (Matt Clement) not much is changed in Marlins land; Derrek Lee, the slick fielding first baseman, is the primary return for Kevin Brown and a staple in the Marlins lineup for the better part of 5 years.
Continuing the cutting payroll theme, let’s assume the Marlins still deal Devon White to the Diamondbacks for no return of note. In terms of 1998 salary, the Brown and White trades save the Marlins in excess of $8 million. That, I think, is a fair place to draw the line. Remember, in 1997, average player payroll was $1.3 million, and three teams (Montreal, Oakland, Pittsburgh) had team payrolls under $20 million.
The Marlins would replace White with Mark Kotsay in center-field and have an outfield of Kotsay, Moises Alou in left and Gary Sheffield in right. In retaining Alou and Sheffield, the Marlins directly change the future of the Astros (who received Alou from the Marlins) the Dodgers (who came away with Sheffield) and the Mets (who got Mike Piazza from the Dodgers by way of a one week layover with the Marlins).
The Astros won their division in 1997 and again in 1998, but with Alou complimenting the lethal Jeff Bagwell, the 1998 team won the division in much more convincing fashion, with Alou chipping in 38 home-runs and 124 RBI’s in what stands as his best season as a professional. Would the Astros still have replicated their 1998 success? It’s possible, considering they acquired Randy Johnson at the 1998 deadline, and he was an inhuman 10-1 with the Astros. The Astros and their incredibly strong rotation would likely have repeated as division champions, and in the end, they lost in the division series to eventual pennant winner San Diego and did not do anything of tremendous note during Alou’s three seasons in Houston. With or without Alou, the Astros are still anchored by future Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio and a rotation featuring Darryl Kile, Jose Lima and Mike Hampton. Had the Astros made noise in the post-season, this would be a more interesting examination, but for simplicity’s sake, let’s just assume the Astros, without Alou, still make the playoffs and get beaten in the first round.
Gary Sheffield, however, presents a much more intriguing situation. Yes, the Marlins opened ’98 with him in right field, and yes, if you believe the accounts of the events opening the ’98 season, the Marlins all along intended to have Sheffield be the anchor of their rebuilding and he asked for the trade, but his trade to the Dodgers, and Piazza’s subsequent trade to the Mets drastically reshaped the National League. The Marlins-Dodgers blockbuster from May of ’98 still stands as one of the largest and most unexpected blockbusters of the last decade. It saw arguably the National League’s top two players exchanged for one another and saw the Dodgers also add an all-star catcher in Charles Johnson, all-star third baseman in Bobby Bonilla and a quality left handed bat in Jim Eisenreich. Still, the Dodgers never once made the playoffs in Sheffield’s tenure, despite having a winning record in all but one of those seasons (’99).
The Mets, on the other hand, gained perhaps the most from this trade, and owe much of their late ‘90’s success to the Marlins fire sale. They obtained Piazza for well below his actual value from the Marlins and also added Al Leiter in an off-season trade prior to the ’98 season. From 1998 through 2004, Leiter and Piazza led the Mets in ERA and OPS in all but one (2003) of those six seasons they spent together. In that span, the Mets twice appeared in the playoffs and once won the National League pennant (2000).
Of course, the Mets have the resources to outspend almost all other competitors, and under Doubleday and then the Wilpons, the Mets have time and again demonstrated a willingness to do so, but were it not for the Marlins fire sale, it is almost assured that they would not have added Mike Piazza until he hit free agency, and given Piazza’s loyal nature, it’s possible that would have never happened while Piazza was still an elite player. Therefore, the Mets still would have likely been a good team from 1998-2004, but they would be without the players who would be their best batter and pitcher, making it extremely unlikely they would be the elite team that won the 2000 National League Pennant. For the sake of our argument, let’s assume they’re unable to lure a big name pitcher in the 1998 off-season, meaning Kevin Brown still goes to Los Angeles and Randy Johnson still goes to Arizona, but they are able to lure a top power hitter like Mo Vaughn. That should give the Mets enough firepower to still keep them in the conversation.
Having looked at the two greatest beneficiaries of the Marlins fire sale, it is only reasonable to examine what the Marlins team would likely have been in the five-year span from 1998-2003. I chose to examine this period because Sheffield’s contract ran for the duration of this period, and most of, if not all of, the young players the Marlins used in ’97 and ’98 would have been club controlled meaning free agency does not enter the picture.
The Marlins rotation would have featured some combination of Livan Hernandez, Al Leiter and Ryan Dempster as the top 3. Thus, the notable casualties would have been Brad Penny (acquired from Arizona for Matt Mantei) Josh Beckett (the #2 overall pick in the ’99 draft) and AJ Burnett (acquired from the Mets for Al Leiter). Considering Leiter’s 95 wins in the span from 98-03 and Livan’s ability to throw north of 220 innings and win double digit games, it’s an ideal rotation for a team that would be built around offense, even if the names “lost” are sexier mainstays in the mind of Marlins fans. I assume Leiter, who makes his home in South Florida and Livan “love you” Miami, present easy renegotiations and the Marlins are happy to ensure they are at the top of their rotation through at least 2003.
The lineup is where the fun begins. Sheffield, Bonilla and Alou would have been, in some form, the 3-4-5 going forward and of those three, only Bonilla experienced a sharp decline in the years immediately following 1998. Waiting in the wings for the Marlins to take over at third base was highly regarded prospect Josh Booty. Booty, of course, would only play 13 major league games and return to college to quarterback the LSU Tigers. The Marlins still could have traded for Mike Lowell, but the players used to acquire Mike Lowell (notably Ed Yarnall) would not have been in the organization were it not for the Piazza trade consummated with the Mets. Eventually, though, Bonilla’s spot in the lineup becomes filled by Derrek Lee (assuming the Brown trade still happens) or Cliff Floyd and the Marlins lineup would never have missed a beat. The Marlins could sign a capable defense first third baseman, bat him 8th, and be just fine.
At the top of the order, Edgar Renteria, Craig Counsell and later Luis Castillo, would have formed both the middle infield and the 1-2 in the order. Conceivably, the Marlins could have still traded Edgar Renteria to make room for Alex Gonzalez, a defensive wizard, and had the middle infield that anchored the Marlins from 1999-2005. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Renteria is eventually traded, but not necessarily to the Cardinals, or for Braden Looper, because this trade will not be financially motivated. Under this scenario, the Marlins could have held onto Renteria for a season or two more until Gonzalez was truly “ready” and insisted on a greater return than just Braden Looper.
Rounding out the lineup would be Charles Johnson at catcher, one of Cliff Floyd or Jeff Conine at first base until Derrek Lee is ready to take over and Mark Kotsay in center giving the Marlins an expected 1-8 of: Castillo, Renteria, Sheffield, Alou, Bonilla, Floyd/Conine, Johnson and Kotsay. With perennial 30 homerun hitter Derrek Lee waiting in the wings, most would be hard pressed to argue against that lineup scoring around 900 runs a season. As a final note to the lineup, Dave Dombrowski was the GM who signed Miguel Cabrera, and there is reason to believe that he would make another run at signing the Venezuelan slugger. Given the rapid deterioration of Bobby Bonilla, it may even be an absolute certainty that Cabrera would be brought into the fold.
Reshuffling the drafts from 1999-2003 is quite interesting. Assuming the Marlins finish with winning records in each of those seasons, the Marlins would lose Josh Beckett (99) Adrian Gonzalez (00) and Jeremy Hermida (02) but would not lose their first round pick in 2001 for signing Charles Johnson since he would have never left in the first place. Some names the Marlins could have selected in the late first rounds of those drafts: Adam Wainwright, Chase Utley, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Jeff Francoeur, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman and Aaron Heilman. Suffice to say, there was talent to be had, and with the exception of Josh Beckett, no one player lost would be truly irreplaceable by any of the aforementioned names.
So where does that leave the Marlins? Well, with a franchise changing middle of the lineup bat staying in Florida (Sheffield) and another not going to New York (Piazza) it’s a fairly safe assumption that the Marlins would have been the perennial wild-card contender that the Mets were from 98-00 and with such an elite offense carrying a capable pitching staff, there’s every reason to believe the team would have made the playoffs at least once or twice in that span.
It’s after the 2000 season that things start to get interesting. Would the emergence of Cliff Floyd and Derrek Lee have pushed some regulars like Alou out the door in a move to replenish an aging rotation? Let’s say Alou’s dealt in 2001, a completely reasonable assumption since 2001 would have been the last year of the five year deal he signed with the Marlins, and in return for Alou, the Marlins are able to get one very good young starter. That means from 2001-2003 the Marlins reloaded their rotation with Leiter, Livan, the starter from the Alou trade, Dempster and a fifth starter like Jesus Sanchez. Also remember, that from 2001-2003 the National League East as a division was exceptionally poor, as no team broke 90 wins in 2001, and in 2002 and 2003 only the Braves won over 90 games. Realistically, the 2001 incarnation of the team could have taken the division without much trouble assuming the starter from the Alou trade was ready to contribute immediately and that Lee and Floyd became the 30 homer players they were with the real 2001 Marlins.
In 2002 and 2003 age, service clocks and expiring contracts could be unkind to the Marlins. Renteria would no longer be under club control if he were still with the team and not traded to make room for Alex Gonzalez, Livan Hernandez and Luis Castillo would be in their final season of arbitration in 2003, and Sheffield would be in his final year of his contract as well. Assuming Floyd signs an extension with the team similar to what he actually signed, 2002 would be his final contract year, leaving Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera as the lone all-star quality players club controlled beyond the 2003 season (and in this scenario Cabrera may not have even debuted until well after the 2003 season). Still, it remains likely that Dombrowski would at least retain Sheffield, if not most of the departing players. Should these years truly turn “lean” the Marlins would have obtained, ironically, many of the high quality young players Dombrowski drafted in Detroit, or in other words, Justin Verlander, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.
To conclude, it appears that the Marlins would have been in perennial contention from 98-02, and almost certainly the division winner in 2001. I’m not entirely sure they would have been able to dethrone any of the Yankee teams that won in that time span, and Arizona almost certainly would have beaten the 2001 team in a five game division series match up, as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling would have been too much to overcome.
Thus, I feel the Marlins are good enough to make the playoffs as the wild card in ‘98 (90 wins) and the division winner in 2001 (88 wins). The Mets won the wild card in both 1999 and 2000, but had the ’97 fire sale not happened, the Mets almost certainly would not have had Piazza and Leiter anchor those teams. Still, even with the Mets out of the picture, the Reds and their 96 wins still would have taken the ’99 wild card. I’m not prepared to declare the ’99 Marlins (probably their ugliest year in this hypothetical since Bonilla almost certainly would be “done” and Lee and Floyd are still at least a year away from being a capable fifth place hitter) capable of winning 96 games or more.
In 2000, the Mets cruised to the wild card with 94 wins, with the Dodgers finishing second with 86. I definitely think that by 2000, the lineup would have replaced the drop-off in production from Bonilla and that the Marlins would have been capable of winning 92-96 games, definitely enough to win the wild card, even if you put Piazza back on the Dodgers and say they win 90.
Thus, the Marlins would have had three playoff appearances in that span, been a coin-flip in 2001 with the Cardinals for the wild card and probably not have been able to keep pace with the 2002 Giants for the wild card, although removing Sheffield’s potent bat from the 2002 Braves and leaving him on the Marlins may make for an interesting pennant race in 2002. The Braves were coming off of their weakest record (88 wins) as division champs in the 5-year stretch from 1997-2001 and the addition of Sheffield in the ’01 off-season was basically their only key move. Still, Sheffield did not top 30 homeruns nor 100 RBI’s in the 2002 season, so to attribute a 13 game improvement to one player who had a sub par year is probably erroneous. Thus, I do not think it is fair to say that the Marlins would have topped the 2002 Braves (101 wins) for the division, even with Sheffield in South Florida and not Atlanta.
Where does that leave the Marlins had this scenario played out over their real life counterparts? They likely have four playoff appearances (’97, ’98, ’00 and ’01) and probably knock off the 2000 Yankees for the World Series because the Marlins would have the lethal infusion of hungry youth and capable veterans.
Ultimately, in terms of hardware, not much would be changed in Marlins land, but it would make Miami a much more desirable free agent destination. Having handicapped myself saying that the Marlins could not be a major free agent player while Sheffield and Alou were under contract, that restriction may have been too drastic as Florida’s lack of state-income tax and the fact that many athletes call Florida home in the offseason could have lead many to the contending Marlins for well below market value, which in turn could push the Marlins consistently over the 100 win threshold and into perennial World Series favorite status. Truthfully, that only affects the post 2000 teams as the rotation would probably need some reworking behind an aging Leiter and Charles Johnson would probably have worn down considerably because of the Florida heat.
Having looked this over now for really the first time, I am ready to say that the Mets had far more to lose from the fire sale not happening than the Marlins had to gain. To Dombrowski’s credit, he crafted a perfect “phoenix” that rose from the fire sale’s ashes. Had 2003 never happened, my conclusion would be different, but for how much I loved that 1997 team, the would-be dynasty was simply the victim of poor timing, coinciding with the Yankees newest dynasty and the strongest Braves teams of their divisional run, save for 2001. The continual winning seasons would have been nice, but as the cliché goes, “they don’t mean a thing without the ring.”
Several assumptions have to be made: 1) the Marlins would still have to pare payroll from ’97-’98, 2) Dave Dombrowski, Jim Leyland and the scouting department would not be dismissed to pare payroll, and 3) for the life of the long term deals negotiated prior to ’97, the Marlins would not be major players in free agency.
First, in terms of cutting payroll, perhaps the safest casualty to assume would be Kevin Brown. He was a mercenary in Florida, his agent was Scott Boras and his walk year was ’98. Assuming the Marlins and Dave Dombrowski come to the same conclusion: that the Padres were the best fit for a Brown trade, and that the Marlins don’t play a game of hardball to get the prospect they really wanted from the Padres (Matt Clement) not much is changed in Marlins land; Derrek Lee, the slick fielding first baseman, is the primary return for Kevin Brown and a staple in the Marlins lineup for the better part of 5 years.
Continuing the cutting payroll theme, let’s assume the Marlins still deal Devon White to the Diamondbacks for no return of note. In terms of 1998 salary, the Brown and White trades save the Marlins in excess of $8 million. That, I think, is a fair place to draw the line. Remember, in 1997, average player payroll was $1.3 million, and three teams (Montreal, Oakland, Pittsburgh) had team payrolls under $20 million.
The Marlins would replace White with Mark Kotsay in center-field and have an outfield of Kotsay, Moises Alou in left and Gary Sheffield in right. In retaining Alou and Sheffield, the Marlins directly change the future of the Astros (who received Alou from the Marlins) the Dodgers (who came away with Sheffield) and the Mets (who got Mike Piazza from the Dodgers by way of a one week layover with the Marlins).
The Astros won their division in 1997 and again in 1998, but with Alou complimenting the lethal Jeff Bagwell, the 1998 team won the division in much more convincing fashion, with Alou chipping in 38 home-runs and 124 RBI’s in what stands as his best season as a professional. Would the Astros still have replicated their 1998 success? It’s possible, considering they acquired Randy Johnson at the 1998 deadline, and he was an inhuman 10-1 with the Astros. The Astros and their incredibly strong rotation would likely have repeated as division champions, and in the end, they lost in the division series to eventual pennant winner San Diego and did not do anything of tremendous note during Alou’s three seasons in Houston. With or without Alou, the Astros are still anchored by future Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio and a rotation featuring Darryl Kile, Jose Lima and Mike Hampton. Had the Astros made noise in the post-season, this would be a more interesting examination, but for simplicity’s sake, let’s just assume the Astros, without Alou, still make the playoffs and get beaten in the first round.
Gary Sheffield, however, presents a much more intriguing situation. Yes, the Marlins opened ’98 with him in right field, and yes, if you believe the accounts of the events opening the ’98 season, the Marlins all along intended to have Sheffield be the anchor of their rebuilding and he asked for the trade, but his trade to the Dodgers, and Piazza’s subsequent trade to the Mets drastically reshaped the National League. The Marlins-Dodgers blockbuster from May of ’98 still stands as one of the largest and most unexpected blockbusters of the last decade. It saw arguably the National League’s top two players exchanged for one another and saw the Dodgers also add an all-star catcher in Charles Johnson, all-star third baseman in Bobby Bonilla and a quality left handed bat in Jim Eisenreich. Still, the Dodgers never once made the playoffs in Sheffield’s tenure, despite having a winning record in all but one of those seasons (’99).
The Mets, on the other hand, gained perhaps the most from this trade, and owe much of their late ‘90’s success to the Marlins fire sale. They obtained Piazza for well below his actual value from the Marlins and also added Al Leiter in an off-season trade prior to the ’98 season. From 1998 through 2004, Leiter and Piazza led the Mets in ERA and OPS in all but one (2003) of those six seasons they spent together. In that span, the Mets twice appeared in the playoffs and once won the National League pennant (2000).
Of course, the Mets have the resources to outspend almost all other competitors, and under Doubleday and then the Wilpons, the Mets have time and again demonstrated a willingness to do so, but were it not for the Marlins fire sale, it is almost assured that they would not have added Mike Piazza until he hit free agency, and given Piazza’s loyal nature, it’s possible that would have never happened while Piazza was still an elite player. Therefore, the Mets still would have likely been a good team from 1998-2004, but they would be without the players who would be their best batter and pitcher, making it extremely unlikely they would be the elite team that won the 2000 National League Pennant. For the sake of our argument, let’s assume they’re unable to lure a big name pitcher in the 1998 off-season, meaning Kevin Brown still goes to Los Angeles and Randy Johnson still goes to Arizona, but they are able to lure a top power hitter like Mo Vaughn. That should give the Mets enough firepower to still keep them in the conversation.
Having looked at the two greatest beneficiaries of the Marlins fire sale, it is only reasonable to examine what the Marlins team would likely have been in the five-year span from 1998-2003. I chose to examine this period because Sheffield’s contract ran for the duration of this period, and most of, if not all of, the young players the Marlins used in ’97 and ’98 would have been club controlled meaning free agency does not enter the picture.
The Marlins rotation would have featured some combination of Livan Hernandez, Al Leiter and Ryan Dempster as the top 3. Thus, the notable casualties would have been Brad Penny (acquired from Arizona for Matt Mantei) Josh Beckett (the #2 overall pick in the ’99 draft) and AJ Burnett (acquired from the Mets for Al Leiter). Considering Leiter’s 95 wins in the span from 98-03 and Livan’s ability to throw north of 220 innings and win double digit games, it’s an ideal rotation for a team that would be built around offense, even if the names “lost” are sexier mainstays in the mind of Marlins fans. I assume Leiter, who makes his home in South Florida and Livan “love you” Miami, present easy renegotiations and the Marlins are happy to ensure they are at the top of their rotation through at least 2003.
The lineup is where the fun begins. Sheffield, Bonilla and Alou would have been, in some form, the 3-4-5 going forward and of those three, only Bonilla experienced a sharp decline in the years immediately following 1998. Waiting in the wings for the Marlins to take over at third base was highly regarded prospect Josh Booty. Booty, of course, would only play 13 major league games and return to college to quarterback the LSU Tigers. The Marlins still could have traded for Mike Lowell, but the players used to acquire Mike Lowell (notably Ed Yarnall) would not have been in the organization were it not for the Piazza trade consummated with the Mets. Eventually, though, Bonilla’s spot in the lineup becomes filled by Derrek Lee (assuming the Brown trade still happens) or Cliff Floyd and the Marlins lineup would never have missed a beat. The Marlins could sign a capable defense first third baseman, bat him 8th, and be just fine.
At the top of the order, Edgar Renteria, Craig Counsell and later Luis Castillo, would have formed both the middle infield and the 1-2 in the order. Conceivably, the Marlins could have still traded Edgar Renteria to make room for Alex Gonzalez, a defensive wizard, and had the middle infield that anchored the Marlins from 1999-2005. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Renteria is eventually traded, but not necessarily to the Cardinals, or for Braden Looper, because this trade will not be financially motivated. Under this scenario, the Marlins could have held onto Renteria for a season or two more until Gonzalez was truly “ready” and insisted on a greater return than just Braden Looper.
Rounding out the lineup would be Charles Johnson at catcher, one of Cliff Floyd or Jeff Conine at first base until Derrek Lee is ready to take over and Mark Kotsay in center giving the Marlins an expected 1-8 of: Castillo, Renteria, Sheffield, Alou, Bonilla, Floyd/Conine, Johnson and Kotsay. With perennial 30 homerun hitter Derrek Lee waiting in the wings, most would be hard pressed to argue against that lineup scoring around 900 runs a season. As a final note to the lineup, Dave Dombrowski was the GM who signed Miguel Cabrera, and there is reason to believe that he would make another run at signing the Venezuelan slugger. Given the rapid deterioration of Bobby Bonilla, it may even be an absolute certainty that Cabrera would be brought into the fold.
Reshuffling the drafts from 1999-2003 is quite interesting. Assuming the Marlins finish with winning records in each of those seasons, the Marlins would lose Josh Beckett (99) Adrian Gonzalez (00) and Jeremy Hermida (02) but would not lose their first round pick in 2001 for signing Charles Johnson since he would have never left in the first place. Some names the Marlins could have selected in the late first rounds of those drafts: Adam Wainwright, Chase Utley, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Jeff Francoeur, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman and Aaron Heilman. Suffice to say, there was talent to be had, and with the exception of Josh Beckett, no one player lost would be truly irreplaceable by any of the aforementioned names.
So where does that leave the Marlins? Well, with a franchise changing middle of the lineup bat staying in Florida (Sheffield) and another not going to New York (Piazza) it’s a fairly safe assumption that the Marlins would have been the perennial wild-card contender that the Mets were from 98-00 and with such an elite offense carrying a capable pitching staff, there’s every reason to believe the team would have made the playoffs at least once or twice in that span.
It’s after the 2000 season that things start to get interesting. Would the emergence of Cliff Floyd and Derrek Lee have pushed some regulars like Alou out the door in a move to replenish an aging rotation? Let’s say Alou’s dealt in 2001, a completely reasonable assumption since 2001 would have been the last year of the five year deal he signed with the Marlins, and in return for Alou, the Marlins are able to get one very good young starter. That means from 2001-2003 the Marlins reloaded their rotation with Leiter, Livan, the starter from the Alou trade, Dempster and a fifth starter like Jesus Sanchez. Also remember, that from 2001-2003 the National League East as a division was exceptionally poor, as no team broke 90 wins in 2001, and in 2002 and 2003 only the Braves won over 90 games. Realistically, the 2001 incarnation of the team could have taken the division without much trouble assuming the starter from the Alou trade was ready to contribute immediately and that Lee and Floyd became the 30 homer players they were with the real 2001 Marlins.
In 2002 and 2003 age, service clocks and expiring contracts could be unkind to the Marlins. Renteria would no longer be under club control if he were still with the team and not traded to make room for Alex Gonzalez, Livan Hernandez and Luis Castillo would be in their final season of arbitration in 2003, and Sheffield would be in his final year of his contract as well. Assuming Floyd signs an extension with the team similar to what he actually signed, 2002 would be his final contract year, leaving Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera as the lone all-star quality players club controlled beyond the 2003 season (and in this scenario Cabrera may not have even debuted until well after the 2003 season). Still, it remains likely that Dombrowski would at least retain Sheffield, if not most of the departing players. Should these years truly turn “lean” the Marlins would have obtained, ironically, many of the high quality young players Dombrowski drafted in Detroit, or in other words, Justin Verlander, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.
To conclude, it appears that the Marlins would have been in perennial contention from 98-02, and almost certainly the division winner in 2001. I’m not entirely sure they would have been able to dethrone any of the Yankee teams that won in that time span, and Arizona almost certainly would have beaten the 2001 team in a five game division series match up, as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling would have been too much to overcome.
Thus, I feel the Marlins are good enough to make the playoffs as the wild card in ‘98 (90 wins) and the division winner in 2001 (88 wins). The Mets won the wild card in both 1999 and 2000, but had the ’97 fire sale not happened, the Mets almost certainly would not have had Piazza and Leiter anchor those teams. Still, even with the Mets out of the picture, the Reds and their 96 wins still would have taken the ’99 wild card. I’m not prepared to declare the ’99 Marlins (probably their ugliest year in this hypothetical since Bonilla almost certainly would be “done” and Lee and Floyd are still at least a year away from being a capable fifth place hitter) capable of winning 96 games or more.
In 2000, the Mets cruised to the wild card with 94 wins, with the Dodgers finishing second with 86. I definitely think that by 2000, the lineup would have replaced the drop-off in production from Bonilla and that the Marlins would have been capable of winning 92-96 games, definitely enough to win the wild card, even if you put Piazza back on the Dodgers and say they win 90.
Thus, the Marlins would have had three playoff appearances in that span, been a coin-flip in 2001 with the Cardinals for the wild card and probably not have been able to keep pace with the 2002 Giants for the wild card, although removing Sheffield’s potent bat from the 2002 Braves and leaving him on the Marlins may make for an interesting pennant race in 2002. The Braves were coming off of their weakest record (88 wins) as division champs in the 5-year stretch from 1997-2001 and the addition of Sheffield in the ’01 off-season was basically their only key move. Still, Sheffield did not top 30 homeruns nor 100 RBI’s in the 2002 season, so to attribute a 13 game improvement to one player who had a sub par year is probably erroneous. Thus, I do not think it is fair to say that the Marlins would have topped the 2002 Braves (101 wins) for the division, even with Sheffield in South Florida and not Atlanta.
Where does that leave the Marlins had this scenario played out over their real life counterparts? They likely have four playoff appearances (’97, ’98, ’00 and ’01) and probably knock off the 2000 Yankees for the World Series because the Marlins would have the lethal infusion of hungry youth and capable veterans.
Ultimately, in terms of hardware, not much would be changed in Marlins land, but it would make Miami a much more desirable free agent destination. Having handicapped myself saying that the Marlins could not be a major free agent player while Sheffield and Alou were under contract, that restriction may have been too drastic as Florida’s lack of state-income tax and the fact that many athletes call Florida home in the offseason could have lead many to the contending Marlins for well below market value, which in turn could push the Marlins consistently over the 100 win threshold and into perennial World Series favorite status. Truthfully, that only affects the post 2000 teams as the rotation would probably need some reworking behind an aging Leiter and Charles Johnson would probably have worn down considerably because of the Florida heat.
Having looked this over now for really the first time, I am ready to say that the Mets had far more to lose from the fire sale not happening than the Marlins had to gain. To Dombrowski’s credit, he crafted a perfect “phoenix” that rose from the fire sale’s ashes. Had 2003 never happened, my conclusion would be different, but for how much I loved that 1997 team, the would-be dynasty was simply the victim of poor timing, coinciding with the Yankees newest dynasty and the strongest Braves teams of their divisional run, save for 2001. The continual winning seasons would have been nice, but as the cliché goes, “they don’t mean a thing without the ring.”
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Too Early For Panic Button
After wrapping up their series victory on Wednesday, the Padres sent the suddenly struggling Marlins to their third straight series loss, following unsuccessful stops in Houston and Colorado.
This rough stretch has dropped the Marlins to .500 on the year and has left some in Marlin-land reaching for the panic button. The problem, though, is that there really is no right answer for the team right now. The offense hits early and disappears late, the starting pitching and the bullpen never seem to get in sync, and Fredi seems to have an inexplicably long leash for pitchers, demonstrated again today as he stuck with Nate Robertson for 5 excruciating runs in a tough 5th inning.
The Marlins have some prospects who are pretty close to household names in Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, but right now, the offense isn't the problem, and even then, there isn't a clear spot for either player. The team has already overhauled their bullpen once with the demotion of Jose Veras and they've only recently gotten Brian Sanches back from the disabled list, so it appears this pitching staff is the one the Marlins want, at least for the short term. Even looking long term, there is no hot shot pitching prospect in the minors, and except for Taylor Tankersley, there doesn't appear to be anyone in the system that has ace reliever potential either. Andrew Miller and Sean West are starters with control issues and Ryan Tucker, at least now, is still viewed by the organization as a starter.
That leaves only one remaining option for a potential shakeup: Fredi Gonzalez, he of the continually hot seat. It's no secret the Marlins tried to replace Fredi this offseason; and owner Jeffrey Loria has never been overly enamored with Fredi as he personally directed Larry Beinfest to hire Joe Girardi, not Fredi Gonzalez, prior to the 2006 season and it was only after their well publicized run-in that Loria canned Girardi. Quite simply, Gonzalez has never had the owner's support.
Making a change now, though, would send all the wrong messages. It would reek of desperation and show a complete obliviousness as to the putrid state of the bullpen.
Firing Fredi is certainly possible, and come May, if the Marlins are still towing the .500 line, it's probable the Marlins make a move, fairly or unfairly. However, for now, the fans shouldn't make too much of the slide to .500.
This rough stretch has dropped the Marlins to .500 on the year and has left some in Marlin-land reaching for the panic button. The problem, though, is that there really is no right answer for the team right now. The offense hits early and disappears late, the starting pitching and the bullpen never seem to get in sync, and Fredi seems to have an inexplicably long leash for pitchers, demonstrated again today as he stuck with Nate Robertson for 5 excruciating runs in a tough 5th inning.
The Marlins have some prospects who are pretty close to household names in Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, but right now, the offense isn't the problem, and even then, there isn't a clear spot for either player. The team has already overhauled their bullpen once with the demotion of Jose Veras and they've only recently gotten Brian Sanches back from the disabled list, so it appears this pitching staff is the one the Marlins want, at least for the short term. Even looking long term, there is no hot shot pitching prospect in the minors, and except for Taylor Tankersley, there doesn't appear to be anyone in the system that has ace reliever potential either. Andrew Miller and Sean West are starters with control issues and Ryan Tucker, at least now, is still viewed by the organization as a starter.
That leaves only one remaining option for a potential shakeup: Fredi Gonzalez, he of the continually hot seat. It's no secret the Marlins tried to replace Fredi this offseason; and owner Jeffrey Loria has never been overly enamored with Fredi as he personally directed Larry Beinfest to hire Joe Girardi, not Fredi Gonzalez, prior to the 2006 season and it was only after their well publicized run-in that Loria canned Girardi. Quite simply, Gonzalez has never had the owner's support.
Making a change now, though, would send all the wrong messages. It would reek of desperation and show a complete obliviousness as to the putrid state of the bullpen.
Firing Fredi is certainly possible, and come May, if the Marlins are still towing the .500 line, it's probable the Marlins make a move, fairly or unfairly. However, for now, the fans shouldn't make too much of the slide to .500.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Stanton On Fire
Twenty year old wunderkind Mike Stanton is off to quite the start at AA Jacksonville: .338/.482/.800; no, that's not a typo, he's really on-basing .482 and slugging .800 for a tidy 1.282 OPS.
Over his last two games, he sent the minor league community into a frenzy with 5 homers in 2 games, including a 4/4 night.
This incredible tear hasn't changed the Marlins philosophy on Stanton, as beat writer Joe Capozzi blogs.
Now, there's no perfect science to making it "work" with a prospect. The Marlins have rushed guys with great results (Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis spring to mind), they've gone painfully slow with guys and gotten great results (Josh Willingham, John Baker) and then they've had it blow up in their face with Jeremy Hermida and, to an extent, Cameron Maybin, both of whom fall somewhere between rushed and slow-and-steady.
The Marlins are doing well to tread lightly right now; incumbent right-fielder Cody Ross has a track record for production and is a fan favorite. Chris Coghlan is the reigning rookie of the year, and despite his sluggish start is too talented of a hitter to bench or demote right now, and Cameron Maybin is a player that the Marlins have a tremendous amount invested in as he's the only truly long-term centerfield option in the organization; quite simply, they must see what they have in him. This depth just doesn't give Stanton a spot to even slide into the lineup.
Long term, Jorge Cantu's impending free agency and Uggla's 6th year arbitration award that should top $11 million means Stanton won't have to wait much longer for a job, but right now, there isn't a spot for the phenom, and that should tell you how talented this Marlins offense can be.
Over his last two games, he sent the minor league community into a frenzy with 5 homers in 2 games, including a 4/4 night.
This incredible tear hasn't changed the Marlins philosophy on Stanton, as beat writer Joe Capozzi blogs.
Now, there's no perfect science to making it "work" with a prospect. The Marlins have rushed guys with great results (Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis spring to mind), they've gone painfully slow with guys and gotten great results (Josh Willingham, John Baker) and then they've had it blow up in their face with Jeremy Hermida and, to an extent, Cameron Maybin, both of whom fall somewhere between rushed and slow-and-steady.
The Marlins are doing well to tread lightly right now; incumbent right-fielder Cody Ross has a track record for production and is a fan favorite. Chris Coghlan is the reigning rookie of the year, and despite his sluggish start is too talented of a hitter to bench or demote right now, and Cameron Maybin is a player that the Marlins have a tremendous amount invested in as he's the only truly long-term centerfield option in the organization; quite simply, they must see what they have in him. This depth just doesn't give Stanton a spot to even slide into the lineup.
Long term, Jorge Cantu's impending free agency and Uggla's 6th year arbitration award that should top $11 million means Stanton won't have to wait much longer for a job, but right now, there isn't a spot for the phenom, and that should tell you how talented this Marlins offense can be.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Fredi's Bullpen Management A Problem
It was a tough meltdown to watch last night. The Marlins scored early and disappeared late, but games like that happen, and with a bullpen like the Marlins', no lead is safe.
The real problem, though, was Fredi's use of his rested bullpen. Monday was an off-day, the performances turned in by Nolasco and Robertson gave the bullpen basically a weekend off. Why then were the Marlins on the short end of a 7-4 decision having used only 2 pitchers: starter Chris Volstad and then Tim Wood for an ill-advised 2 innings of work.
The bigger problem, though is the way Fredi uses his bullpen; last night, other than Wood, the only other reliever Fredi got up was Renyel Pinto. This isn't anything new, Marlins fans know that Fredi has his favorites and sticks with them to a fault. The real problem goes deeper than playing favorites, the real problem is that the Marlins have a bad bullpen and Fredi is too hesitant to pull a struggling reliever out. Wood clearly didn't have it last night in the 7th, yet Fredi stuck with him for the fateful 8th, much the way he stuck with Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, Jorge Julio and the litany of relievers we've run through here the past several years.
Fredi's old school bullpen management is beneficial when a few alpha relievers rise above the rest of the bullpen, look at Joe Torre's successful Yankee teams or Bobby Cox's mid 90's Braves teams, but the Marlins don't have that luxury. The 7 arms in the bullpen, handedness excluded, are basically all of interchangeable quality, except for the recent emergence of Clay Hensley and what appears to be a more confident Leo Nunez. Fredi needs to learn to get away from a struggling reliever rather than allowing him to try to work it out on the mound. The team has been very fortunate with the performance of their rotation to this point, Fredi can't allow the bullpen to keep handing games away because he stuck with "his guy" too long.
The real problem, though, was Fredi's use of his rested bullpen. Monday was an off-day, the performances turned in by Nolasco and Robertson gave the bullpen basically a weekend off. Why then were the Marlins on the short end of a 7-4 decision having used only 2 pitchers: starter Chris Volstad and then Tim Wood for an ill-advised 2 innings of work.
The bigger problem, though is the way Fredi uses his bullpen; last night, other than Wood, the only other reliever Fredi got up was Renyel Pinto. This isn't anything new, Marlins fans know that Fredi has his favorites and sticks with them to a fault. The real problem goes deeper than playing favorites, the real problem is that the Marlins have a bad bullpen and Fredi is too hesitant to pull a struggling reliever out. Wood clearly didn't have it last night in the 7th, yet Fredi stuck with him for the fateful 8th, much the way he stuck with Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, Jorge Julio and the litany of relievers we've run through here the past several years.
Fredi's old school bullpen management is beneficial when a few alpha relievers rise above the rest of the bullpen, look at Joe Torre's successful Yankee teams or Bobby Cox's mid 90's Braves teams, but the Marlins don't have that luxury. The 7 arms in the bullpen, handedness excluded, are basically all of interchangeable quality, except for the recent emergence of Clay Hensley and what appears to be a more confident Leo Nunez. Fredi needs to learn to get away from a struggling reliever rather than allowing him to try to work it out on the mound. The team has been very fortunate with the performance of their rotation to this point, Fredi can't allow the bullpen to keep handing games away because he stuck with "his guy" too long.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Marlins Pass Early Season Test
Roy Halladay, Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels. In Philadelphia, without Josh Johnson getting a start in the series. Yes, I too shuddered at what could have been a terrifying weekend series. Instead, the Marlins rolled into Philadelphia, scored 13 runs in the three game series and took two out of three from Philadelphia, who, until Friday, were feasting on the Nationals and Astros en route to their 7-1 start.
The Phillies could not have set this early season division showdown up any better: Halladay and Hamels, their two best pitchers, were bookending Marlin killer Jamie Moyer, combining that with the hottest offense in baseball seemed to be a sure recipe for success.
The Marlins, however, looked like the superior team, winning big (5-1 on Saturday behind a brilliant Ricky Nolasco start) winning close (2-0 on Sunday) and never quitting (8-6 in defeat, but scoring 5 runs in the final 2 innings), and showing flashes of the playoff team ownership has envisioned.
It was a true test of this Marlins club's mettle, and they passed with flying colors.
To be sure, there are still plenty of questions for the team: can the bullpen find a way to bridge those middle innings, is there a true lefty-specialist and can they find some defensive consistency? For now though, Marlins fans should be proud of their team: they went into Philadelphia and served notice that the division race should be a lot of fun this year.
The Phillies could not have set this early season division showdown up any better: Halladay and Hamels, their two best pitchers, were bookending Marlin killer Jamie Moyer, combining that with the hottest offense in baseball seemed to be a sure recipe for success.
The Marlins, however, looked like the superior team, winning big (5-1 on Saturday behind a brilliant Ricky Nolasco start) winning close (2-0 on Sunday) and never quitting (8-6 in defeat, but scoring 5 runs in the final 2 innings), and showing flashes of the playoff team ownership has envisioned.
It was a true test of this Marlins club's mettle, and they passed with flying colors.
To be sure, there are still plenty of questions for the team: can the bullpen find a way to bridge those middle innings, is there a true lefty-specialist and can they find some defensive consistency? For now though, Marlins fans should be proud of their team: they went into Philadelphia and served notice that the division race should be a lot of fun this year.
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