2010 Preview: The Outfield

Part II of our 2010 preview focuses on the outfield. At this point, Marlins fans are pretty familiar with all three of the projected starters, but what kind of a blogger would I be if I didn't at least attempt to pass along some information.

Left Field

Chris Coghlan's going to open 2010 where he closed 2009: playing out of position in left field. The middle infielder turned corner outfielder out of necessity is the reigning National League Rookie of the Year based on a second half in which he paced baseball with a .372 second half batting average and a major league leading 113 second half hits.

In Coghlan, the Marlins have the ideal top of the order hitter: he gets on base, he hits left-handed pitching about as well as he hits right handed pitching (.385 OBP against lefties compared to .391 OBP against righties), and he doesn't strike out a whole lot. The only characteristic he lacks of the prototypical 1-2 hitter is speed: his 8 steals in 13 attempts (62%) is subpar, especially for a team that features a wealth of speedsters.

His defense in left improved as the season went on, and Sun Life Stadium is a notoriously difficult left-field to play because of the football lights causing most line drives to disappear on the fielder. Coghlan's long term future figures to be in the infield (he was drafted out of Mississippi as a second-baseman), but he'll be the left fielder for at least 2010.

Right now, he profiles as a singles/doubles hitter, but if he develops a bit more power to push his homer totals into double figures (he had 9 a season ago) the Marlins could have a leadoff hitter that's the envy of baseball.


Center Field

Fredi Gonzalez steadfastly claims that Cameron Maybin is not guaranteed a job, but, realistically, the team is not going to us Scott Cousins or Jai Miller as the full time center-fielder for 2010 unless Maybin is unable to play. Whether Maybin's current groin injury allows him to be the opening day starter is an uncertainty, but I would be absolutely floored if Maybin did not get at least 400 big league at bats in 2010.

Throughout their history, the Marlins have loved to have a center-fielder that covers a lot of ground: Chuck Carr, Devon White, Juan Pierre and now Cameron Maybin looks to continue the legacy of fleet-footed slick fielders. Of all the center-fielders in Marlins history, Maybin might have the strongest throwing arm (Mark Kotsay and Brett Carroll aside since they merely moonlighted in center), and he certainly comes with the highest expectations as a top-10 overall pick in a famously loaded 2005 draft.

Of the players taken in the top-10, Maybin's upside was considered second to only #1 overall pick Justin Upton, a true 5-tool talent in center field. Scouts loved his ability to hit for power and average, he set a North Carolina high-school record hitting .645 in his senior season, and his speed is hard to miss, both in the field and on the base-paths.

In the minors, Maybin has demonstrated a consistent ability to run, and run successfully, with 81 steals in 103 attempts (79%). Beyond that, the offensive game remains a work in progress. Since coming to the Marlins, Maybin has had extended stays at both AA and AAA where he walked relatively consistently, but that eye did not translate to the major league level, at least not yet. The real key for Maybin will be minimizing his strikeouts (388 K's over 4 minor league seasons). Cutting down the strikeouts will be largely reliant on how much shorter his swing becomes. With the Marlins in 2009, Maybin showed a violently fast yet very long swing that was the product of a pendulum like uppercut he had on pitches over the inner half of the plate. His K totals improved in AAA New Orleans, so maybe Cam has figured out how to control the inner half.

The power that was expected to come has yet to materialize. He's never hit more than 13 home-runs at any level, nor has he ever hit 20 doubles at any level. Suffice to say, that lack of minor league power is troubling. There are worse things than a speedy, singles hitting center-fielder who can cover some ground, but a player with Maybin's pedigree should be so much more.

In 2010, I look for Maybin to stick in the majors for good, and, if so, it will be the first time he does not split time between professional levels since high-school. Maybe all Maybin needs is routine. I think the days of his status as a super-star in waiting are done, but I think Maybin could turn in a .270/.330/.410 line in 2010, and really, for an incredibly up and down 23 year old, that seems somewhat encouraging.


Right Field

Fan favorite Cody Ross has been guaranteed a job, unsurprisingly, and unless Maybin does not break camp with the team, that job should be in right field. At the start of 2009, Ross was named the Marlins right fielder, but moved back to center after Maybin's demotion to AAA. Ross gives the Marlins a gold-glove caliber outfielder, and between Cody and Cam, outfield range should never be an issue. Given the number of fly-ball pitchers on the Marlins staff, that's great news.

At the plate, Ross has shown a propensity for extra base hits, and big hits in big spots. leading to ubiquitous chants of Co-dy, Co-dy. Originally viewed as the right-handed compliment to an outfield platoon, Ross showed in 2009 that he can be an incredibly productive everyday player regardless of the pitcher's handedness, although his lefty - righty splits show he clearly prefers hitting lefties as he posted a .959 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Cody has been mostly healthy the last two seasons, nagging injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career, and with that health have come two remarkably productive seasons. 2010 should be more of the same for Cody: 20 something homers, 30 something doubles and a critical bat in the bottom 3rd of the order.

The Fourth Outfielder

Brett Carroll's specialty is defense. His range is incredible and his arm should be legendary; you could hang laundry on his throws to the plate. If you ever wanted to see an unequivocal "80" on the 20-80 scout's scale, it's Carroll's throwing arm.

Beyond that, the man nicknamed BC doesn't have a lot of flash to his game. He came oh so close to being the first Marlin to hit for the cycle, he finished a double short in the same game rookie Sean West threw 6 no-hit innings, that, at least temporarily, teased fans as potentially the greatest game in Marlins history, but the offensive highlights mostly end there. He hits lefties far better than righties (.801 OPS to .589 OPS) but even then, it's hard to imagine he's capable of putting up that same kind of production if given a full season platoon role (he did it in just 66 AB's in '09).

BC is the embodiment of the major league 4th outfielder. He can fill in at any position, he can be the defensive replacement on the back end of a double switch (which is a Fredi Gonzalez favorite) and he can fill in for a week at a time in the event of injury. He's carved out his niche, and the Marlins appear only too happy to let him to continue to be the defensive whiz and Sunday starter he's demonstrated himself to be.

The Phenom

If you haven't heard of Mike Stanton yet, you will soon. The 20 year old right-fielder is demonstrating why he's considered a top-3 prospect in all of baseball, and why the Marlins made him untouchable two years ago in the Manny Ramirez trade talks. His torrid spring (2 homers, .444 average going into today) have kept him in the conversation for a big league job, but his limited experience above A ball (last year, he spent only part of the season at AA Jacksonville) make it incredibly likely that no matter how good a spring he has, at least a few months in the minors are in his future. The Marlins are aggressive in promoting players in season from AA, Sean West as the latest example, so do not be surprised to see him in Miami this year, just not much before June or July, if at all.