Guessing on the Final 25

There are roughly two weeks left of spring training, and generally the final week is played under game conditions, or something reasonably close to it. The starting pitcher usually isn't on a drop-dead pitch count, starters who aren't nursing injuries play all 9 and everyone starts to get used to the role they have for the coming season. Thus, while there are two weeks left, the heavy roster culling figures to take place over the next week to ten days. We've already seen some opening shots fired with Sean West's demotion and Derek Turnbow's release following his set back.

The Marlins still have 33 roster players in camp, along with notable non-roster invitees Mike MacDougal, Mike Lamb, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Seth McClung, Danny Richar and Jose Veras, so there are still plenty of red cards to be hung in lockers. Fredi Gonzalez has said he wants to have to make tough decisions, but aside from the back end of the rotation, which, depending whom you listen to either was or wasn't a true race for three spots, Fredi doesn't have a tremendously tough decision making process ahead of him. Here, now, is firstplacefish's first guess at the 25 man roster:

Position players:

The Starters:

Chris Coghlan
Cameron Maybin
Hanley Ramirez
Jorge Cantu
Dan Uggla
Cody Ross
John Baker
Gaby Sanchez

No real surprises in this group, everyone save for Maybin and Sanchez were guaranteed jobs based on past performance, salary, or both, and the only real change would be if the Marlins acquire a veteran from outside the organization (Mike Lowell?) to keep Gaby off the 25 man active roster, since it appears the organization has little faith in him as a starter.

The Bench:

Ronny Paulino
Wes Helms
Brett Carroll
Emilio Bonifacio
Mike Lamb

Again, much like the starters, no one here was really fighting for a job save the last guy on the list. Lamb fills the Ross Gload role for 2010 (sounds kind of dirty, right?) as a versatile lefty that can probably play three of the four corner positions if needed and should be able to work well as primarily a pinch hitter. Ultimately, that's what led me to believe the Marlins will side with Lamb over Danny Richar as Lamb's ability to be a proven bench bat should win out over Richar's positional versatility, plus Lamb brings a little more "pop" and is the prototypical Beinfest bench player: he's been around, he's never been a long-term starter, but somehow, he's going to thrive.

The Pitching Staff:

The Rotation:

Josh Johnson
Ricky Nolasco
Anibal Sanchez
Chris Volstad
Andrew Miller

Pretty boring, huh? The "open competition" likely won't result in anything unexpected. Johnson and Nolasco didn't have to win their jobs, and Sanchez has put together a respectable enough spring to assume he's got a job in the rotation. Beyond that, Volstad makes it simply because the Marlins act very much like a team that either already had their mind made up about him before camp opened, or a team that only needs to see one good 4 inning start from him to justify the rotation spot. Whichever the case may be, neither ends with Volstad in the minors.

Miller gets the 5th spot because he's a lefty. I wish there were more to say than this, but I very much doubt the Marlins go with 5 right handed starters to start the season. We just don't buck conventional wisdom like that. Miller may not be more merited than Rick Vandenhurk or spring standout Clay Hensley, but unfortunately for them, Miller is the only player left in the race for a rotation spot that throws left-handed.

The bullpen:

Leo Nunez
Mike MacDougal
Clay Hensley
Renyel Pinto
Dan Meyer
Burke Badenhop
Hayden Penn

Aside from Hensley and Penn forcing their way onto the roster, no real surprises. MacDougal came into camp with probably the best fastball among the bullpen hopefuls, and we know the Marlins are enamored with the radar reading. Pinto and Meyer give the Marlins versatile lefty set up / mop up options and Badenhop looks to again be the long-man in the 'pen. Only Hayden Penn comes into the 'pen without a role and based purely on spring performance. If the Marlins feel they have enough innings and instead need another set up option, hard throwing righty Jose Veras could be the last man in instead. However, Veras is in camp on a minor league contract while Penn is on the 40-man and out of options, so that alone could make Penn the first choice; the Marlins won't risk losing a pitcher they feel can contribute.


The dark-horses:

Logan Morrison
Rick Vandenhurk
Jose Veras
Mike Stanton
Bryan Petersen

Believe it or not, as of March 18th, Bryan Petersen leads the Marlins in at-bats (33) and appearances (11). Now, often times that kind of player is destined for AAA and the manager just wants to rest his regulars. That Petersen can play all 3 outfield positions makes it likely is being used both as the spring training "gopher" and also a dark-horse for the roster. In all likelihood, he's going to AAA, but if the Marlins decide to forego a lefty bat off the bench, Petersen's versatility could push him onto the roster as the Marlins have no true 5th outfielder (but then again, few NL teams do).

Vandenhurk is the odd man out from the rotation. Though more deserving of a spot than both Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller, Vandenhurk's been bitten by the long-ball this spring, and that is likely all the justification the Marlins need to send him to AAA where he'll get a chance to start.

Veras, Morrison and Stanton really only enter the picture in the event of serious injury. Morrison is a peculiar case, however. He has not done anything to prove he is ready for the majors, yet not only have the Marlins kept him in camp where they play him regularly, but also Fredi Gonzalez continues to maintain that he's not even looking at batting averages yet, leading some to read between the lines that Gaby Sanchez is not the front runner despite every statistical measure saying he should be. I don't think it's likely, but it would hardly be surprising if Morrison's named the every day first baseman.