The Great Marlins What If

The Marlins have seen many great players come, and especially go, in their 15 years of existence, but no event is more famous than the great teardown after the 1997 World Series. Even today, a healthy number of regulars from that squad still have a major league job, so, naturally, I couldn’t help but wonder what would the state of the Marlins be had that team been given a fair chance at defending their title. To me, the ’97 fire sale may not simply be the biggest event in Marlins history, but also one of the three or four most important events in baseball over the last two decades. The fire sale directly fueled two World Series berths for National League teams (’98 Padres, ’00 Mets) accounted for an 18 game improvement in a perennial mid 90’s division power (Astros) and, for all intents and purposes, created an opportunity for not one but two future World Series MVP’s to prove their worth (Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell). Here’s my take on how the baseball landscape would have changed had the ’97 team been given a chance to defend their title.

Several assumptions have to be made: 1) the Marlins would still have to pare payroll from ’97-’98, 2) Dave Dombrowski, Jim Leyland and the scouting department would not be dismissed to pare payroll, and 3) for the life of the long term deals negotiated prior to ’97, the Marlins would not be major players in free agency.

First, in terms of cutting payroll, perhaps the safest casualty to assume would be Kevin Brown. He was a mercenary in Florida, his agent was Scott Boras and his walk year was ’98. Assuming the Marlins and Dave Dombrowski come to the same conclusion: that the Padres were the best fit for a Brown trade, and that the Marlins don’t play a game of hardball to get the prospect they really wanted from the Padres (Matt Clement) not much is changed in Marlins land; Derrek Lee, the slick fielding first baseman, is the primary return for Kevin Brown and a staple in the Marlins lineup for the better part of 5 years.

Continuing the cutting payroll theme, let’s assume the Marlins still deal Devon White to the Diamondbacks for no return of note. In terms of 1998 salary, the Brown and White trades save the Marlins in excess of $8 million. That, I think, is a fair place to draw the line. Remember, in 1997, average player payroll was $1.3 million, and three teams (Montreal, Oakland, Pittsburgh) had team payrolls under $20 million.

The Marlins would replace White with Mark Kotsay in center-field and have an outfield of Kotsay, Moises Alou in left and Gary Sheffield in right. In retaining Alou and Sheffield, the Marlins directly change the future of the Astros (who received Alou from the Marlins) the Dodgers (who came away with Sheffield) and the Mets (who got Mike Piazza from the Dodgers by way of a one week layover with the Marlins).

The Astros won their division in 1997 and again in 1998, but with Alou complimenting the lethal Jeff Bagwell, the 1998 team won the division in much more convincing fashion, with Alou chipping in 38 home-runs and 124 RBI’s in what stands as his best season as a professional. Would the Astros still have replicated their 1998 success? It’s possible, considering they acquired Randy Johnson at the 1998 deadline, and he was an inhuman 10-1 with the Astros. The Astros and their incredibly strong rotation would likely have repeated as division champions, and in the end, they lost in the division series to eventual pennant winner San Diego and did not do anything of tremendous note during Alou’s three seasons in Houston. With or without Alou, the Astros are still anchored by future Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio and a rotation featuring Darryl Kile, Jose Lima and Mike Hampton. Had the Astros made noise in the post-season, this would be a more interesting examination, but for simplicity’s sake, let’s just assume the Astros, without Alou, still make the playoffs and get beaten in the first round.

Gary Sheffield, however, presents a much more intriguing situation. Yes, the Marlins opened ’98 with him in right field, and yes, if you believe the accounts of the events opening the ’98 season, the Marlins all along intended to have Sheffield be the anchor of their rebuilding and he asked for the trade, but his trade to the Dodgers, and Piazza’s subsequent trade to the Mets drastically reshaped the National League. The Marlins-Dodgers blockbuster from May of ’98 still stands as one of the largest and most unexpected blockbusters of the last decade. It saw arguably the National League’s top two players exchanged for one another and saw the Dodgers also add an all-star catcher in Charles Johnson, all-star third baseman in Bobby Bonilla and a quality left handed bat in Jim Eisenreich. Still, the Dodgers never once made the playoffs in Sheffield’s tenure, despite having a winning record in all but one of those seasons (’99).

The Mets, on the other hand, gained perhaps the most from this trade, and owe much of their late ‘90’s success to the Marlins fire sale. They obtained Piazza for well below his actual value from the Marlins and also added Al Leiter in an off-season trade prior to the ’98 season. From 1998 through 2004, Leiter and Piazza led the Mets in ERA and OPS in all but one (2003) of those six seasons they spent together. In that span, the Mets twice appeared in the playoffs and once won the National League pennant (2000).

Of course, the Mets have the resources to outspend almost all other competitors, and under Doubleday and then the Wilpons, the Mets have time and again demonstrated a willingness to do so, but were it not for the Marlins fire sale, it is almost assured that they would not have added Mike Piazza until he hit free agency, and given Piazza’s loyal nature, it’s possible that would have never happened while Piazza was still an elite player. Therefore, the Mets still would have likely been a good team from 1998-2004, but they would be without the players who would be their best batter and pitcher, making it extremely unlikely they would be the elite team that won the 2000 National League Pennant. For the sake of our argument, let’s assume they’re unable to lure a big name pitcher in the 1998 off-season, meaning Kevin Brown still goes to Los Angeles and Randy Johnson still goes to Arizona, but they are able to lure a top power hitter like Mo Vaughn. That should give the Mets enough firepower to still keep them in the conversation.

Having looked at the two greatest beneficiaries of the Marlins fire sale, it is only reasonable to examine what the Marlins team would likely have been in the five-year span from 1998-2003. I chose to examine this period because Sheffield’s contract ran for the duration of this period, and most of, if not all of, the young players the Marlins used in ’97 and ’98 would have been club controlled meaning free agency does not enter the picture.

The Marlins rotation would have featured some combination of Livan Hernandez, Al Leiter and Ryan Dempster as the top 3. Thus, the notable casualties would have been Brad Penny (acquired from Arizona for Matt Mantei) Josh Beckett (the #2 overall pick in the ’99 draft) and AJ Burnett (acquired from the Mets for Al Leiter). Considering Leiter’s 95 wins in the span from 98-03 and Livan’s ability to throw north of 220 innings and win double digit games, it’s an ideal rotation for a team that would be built around offense, even if the names “lost” are sexier mainstays in the mind of Marlins fans. I assume Leiter, who makes his home in South Florida and Livan “love you” Miami, present easy renegotiations and the Marlins are happy to ensure they are at the top of their rotation through at least 2003.

The lineup is where the fun begins. Sheffield, Bonilla and Alou would have been, in some form, the 3-4-5 going forward and of those three, only Bonilla experienced a sharp decline in the years immediately following 1998. Waiting in the wings for the Marlins to take over at third base was highly regarded prospect Josh Booty. Booty, of course, would only play 13 major league games and return to college to quarterback the LSU Tigers. The Marlins still could have traded for Mike Lowell, but the players used to acquire Mike Lowell (notably Ed Yarnall) would not have been in the organization were it not for the Piazza trade consummated with the Mets. Eventually, though, Bonilla’s spot in the lineup becomes filled by Derrek Lee (assuming the Brown trade still happens) or Cliff Floyd and the Marlins lineup would never have missed a beat. The Marlins could sign a capable defense first third baseman, bat him 8th, and be just fine.

At the top of the order, Edgar Renteria, Craig Counsell and later Luis Castillo, would have formed both the middle infield and the 1-2 in the order. Conceivably, the Marlins could have still traded Edgar Renteria to make room for Alex Gonzalez, a defensive wizard, and had the middle infield that anchored the Marlins from 1999-2005. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Renteria is eventually traded, but not necessarily to the Cardinals, or for Braden Looper, because this trade will not be financially motivated. Under this scenario, the Marlins could have held onto Renteria for a season or two more until Gonzalez was truly “ready” and insisted on a greater return than just Braden Looper.

Rounding out the lineup would be Charles Johnson at catcher, one of Cliff Floyd or Jeff Conine at first base until Derrek Lee is ready to take over and Mark Kotsay in center giving the Marlins an expected 1-8 of: Castillo, Renteria, Sheffield, Alou, Bonilla, Floyd/Conine, Johnson and Kotsay. With perennial 30 homerun hitter Derrek Lee waiting in the wings, most would be hard pressed to argue against that lineup scoring around 900 runs a season. As a final note to the lineup, Dave Dombrowski was the GM who signed Miguel Cabrera, and there is reason to believe that he would make another run at signing the Venezuelan slugger. Given the rapid deterioration of Bobby Bonilla, it may even be an absolute certainty that Cabrera would be brought into the fold.

Reshuffling the drafts from 1999-2003 is quite interesting. Assuming the Marlins finish with winning records in each of those seasons, the Marlins would lose Josh Beckett (99) Adrian Gonzalez (00) and Jeremy Hermida (02) but would not lose their first round pick in 2001 for signing Charles Johnson since he would have never left in the first place. Some names the Marlins could have selected in the late first rounds of those drafts: Adam Wainwright, Chase Utley, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Jeff Francoeur, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman and Aaron Heilman. Suffice to say, there was talent to be had, and with the exception of Josh Beckett, no one player lost would be truly irreplaceable by any of the aforementioned names.

So where does that leave the Marlins? Well, with a franchise changing middle of the lineup bat staying in Florida (Sheffield) and another not going to New York (Piazza) it’s a fairly safe assumption that the Marlins would have been the perennial wild-card contender that the Mets were from 98-00 and with such an elite offense carrying a capable pitching staff, there’s every reason to believe the team would have made the playoffs at least once or twice in that span.

It’s after the 2000 season that things start to get interesting. Would the emergence of Cliff Floyd and Derrek Lee have pushed some regulars like Alou out the door in a move to replenish an aging rotation? Let’s say Alou’s dealt in 2001, a completely reasonable assumption since 2001 would have been the last year of the five year deal he signed with the Marlins, and in return for Alou, the Marlins are able to get one very good young starter. That means from 2001-2003 the Marlins reloaded their rotation with Leiter, Livan, the starter from the Alou trade, Dempster and a fifth starter like Jesus Sanchez. Also remember, that from 2001-2003 the National League East as a division was exceptionally poor, as no team broke 90 wins in 2001, and in 2002 and 2003 only the Braves won over 90 games. Realistically, the 2001 incarnation of the team could have taken the division without much trouble assuming the starter from the Alou trade was ready to contribute immediately and that Lee and Floyd became the 30 homer players they were with the real 2001 Marlins.

In 2002 and 2003 age, service clocks and expiring contracts could be unkind to the Marlins. Renteria would no longer be under club control if he were still with the team and not traded to make room for Alex Gonzalez, Livan Hernandez and Luis Castillo would be in their final season of arbitration in 2003, and Sheffield would be in his final year of his contract as well. Assuming Floyd signs an extension with the team similar to what he actually signed, 2002 would be his final contract year, leaving Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera as the lone all-star quality players club controlled beyond the 2003 season (and in this scenario Cabrera may not have even debuted until well after the 2003 season). Still, it remains likely that Dombrowski would at least retain Sheffield, if not most of the departing players. Should these years truly turn “lean” the Marlins would have obtained, ironically, many of the high quality young players Dombrowski drafted in Detroit, or in other words, Justin Verlander, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.

To conclude, it appears that the Marlins would have been in perennial contention from 98-02, and almost certainly the division winner in 2001. I’m not entirely sure they would have been able to dethrone any of the Yankee teams that won in that time span, and Arizona almost certainly would have beaten the 2001 team in a five game division series match up, as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling would have been too much to overcome.

Thus, I feel the Marlins are good enough to make the playoffs as the wild card in ‘98 (90 wins) and the division winner in 2001 (88 wins). The Mets won the wild card in both 1999 and 2000, but had the ’97 fire sale not happened, the Mets almost certainly would not have had Piazza and Leiter anchor those teams. Still, even with the Mets out of the picture, the Reds and their 96 wins still would have taken the ’99 wild card. I’m not prepared to declare the ’99 Marlins (probably their ugliest year in this hypothetical since Bonilla almost certainly would be “done” and Lee and Floyd are still at least a year away from being a capable fifth place hitter) capable of winning 96 games or more.

In 2000, the Mets cruised to the wild card with 94 wins, with the Dodgers finishing second with 86. I definitely think that by 2000, the lineup would have replaced the drop-off in production from Bonilla and that the Marlins would have been capable of winning 92-96 games, definitely enough to win the wild card, even if you put Piazza back on the Dodgers and say they win 90.

Thus, the Marlins would have had three playoff appearances in that span, been a coin-flip in 2001 with the Cardinals for the wild card and probably not have been able to keep pace with the 2002 Giants for the wild card, although removing Sheffield’s potent bat from the 2002 Braves and leaving him on the Marlins may make for an interesting pennant race in 2002. The Braves were coming off of their weakest record (88 wins) as division champs in the 5-year stretch from 1997-2001 and the addition of Sheffield in the ’01 off-season was basically their only key move. Still, Sheffield did not top 30 homeruns nor 100 RBI’s in the 2002 season, so to attribute a 13 game improvement to one player who had a sub par year is probably erroneous. Thus, I do not think it is fair to say that the Marlins would have topped the 2002 Braves (101 wins) for the division, even with Sheffield in South Florida and not Atlanta.

Where does that leave the Marlins had this scenario played out over their real life counterparts? They likely have four playoff appearances (’97, ’98, ’00 and ’01) and probably knock off the 2000 Yankees for the World Series because the Marlins would have the lethal infusion of hungry youth and capable veterans.

Ultimately, in terms of hardware, not much would be changed in Marlins land, but it would make Miami a much more desirable free agent destination. Having handicapped myself saying that the Marlins could not be a major free agent player while Sheffield and Alou were under contract, that restriction may have been too drastic as Florida’s lack of state-income tax and the fact that many athletes call Florida home in the offseason could have lead many to the contending Marlins for well below market value, which in turn could push the Marlins consistently over the 100 win threshold and into perennial World Series favorite status. Truthfully, that only affects the post 2000 teams as the rotation would probably need some reworking behind an aging Leiter and Charles Johnson would probably have worn down considerably because of the Florida heat.

Having looked this over now for really the first time, I am ready to say that the Mets had far more to lose from the fire sale not happening than the Marlins had to gain. To Dombrowski’s credit, he crafted a perfect “phoenix” that rose from the fire sale’s ashes. Had 2003 never happened, my conclusion would be different, but for how much I loved that 1997 team, the would-be dynasty was simply the victim of poor timing, coinciding with the Yankees newest dynasty and the strongest Braves teams of their divisional run, save for 2001. The continual winning seasons would have been nice, but as the cliché goes, “they don’t mean a thing without the ring.”

Too Early For Panic Button

After wrapping up their series victory on Wednesday, the Padres sent the suddenly struggling Marlins to their third straight series loss, following unsuccessful stops in Houston and Colorado.

This rough stretch has dropped the Marlins to .500 on the year and has left some in Marlin-land reaching for the panic button. The problem, though, is that there really is no right answer for the team right now. The offense hits early and disappears late, the starting pitching and the bullpen never seem to get in sync, and Fredi seems to have an inexplicably long leash for pitchers, demonstrated again today as he stuck with Nate Robertson for 5 excruciating runs in a tough 5th inning.

The Marlins have some prospects who are pretty close to household names in Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, but right now, the offense isn't the problem, and even then, there isn't a clear spot for either player. The team has already overhauled their bullpen once with the demotion of Jose Veras and they've only recently gotten Brian Sanches back from the disabled list, so it appears this pitching staff is the one the Marlins want, at least for the short term. Even looking long term, there is no hot shot pitching prospect in the minors, and except for Taylor Tankersley, there doesn't appear to be anyone in the system that has ace reliever potential either. Andrew Miller and Sean West are starters with control issues and Ryan Tucker, at least now, is still viewed by the organization as a starter.

That leaves only one remaining option for a potential shakeup: Fredi Gonzalez, he of the continually hot seat. It's no secret the Marlins tried to replace Fredi this offseason; and owner Jeffrey Loria has never been overly enamored with Fredi as he personally directed Larry Beinfest to hire Joe Girardi, not Fredi Gonzalez, prior to the 2006 season and it was only after their well publicized run-in that Loria canned Girardi. Quite simply, Gonzalez has never had the owner's support.

Making a change now, though, would send all the wrong messages. It would reek of desperation and show a complete obliviousness as to the putrid state of the bullpen.

Firing Fredi is certainly possible, and come May, if the Marlins are still towing the .500 line, it's probable the Marlins make a move, fairly or unfairly. However, for now, the fans shouldn't make too much of the slide to .500.

Stanton On Fire

Twenty year old wunderkind Mike Stanton is off to quite the start at AA Jacksonville: .338/.482/.800; no, that's not a typo, he's really on-basing .482 and slugging .800 for a tidy 1.282 OPS.

Over his last two games, he sent the minor league community into a frenzy with 5 homers in 2 games, including a 4/4 night.

This incredible tear hasn't changed the Marlins philosophy on Stanton, as beat writer Joe Capozzi blogs.

Now, there's no perfect science to making it "work" with a prospect. The Marlins have rushed guys with great results (Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis spring to mind), they've gone painfully slow with guys and gotten great results (Josh Willingham, John Baker) and then they've had it blow up in their face with Jeremy Hermida and, to an extent, Cameron Maybin, both of whom fall somewhere between rushed and slow-and-steady.

The Marlins are doing well to tread lightly right now; incumbent right-fielder Cody Ross has a track record for production and is a fan favorite. Chris Coghlan is the reigning rookie of the year, and despite his sluggish start is too talented of a hitter to bench or demote right now, and Cameron Maybin is a player that the Marlins have a tremendous amount invested in as he's the only truly long-term centerfield option in the organization; quite simply, they must see what they have in him. This depth just doesn't give Stanton a spot to even slide into the lineup.

Long term, Jorge Cantu's impending free agency and Uggla's 6th year arbitration award that should top $11 million means Stanton won't have to wait much longer for a job, but right now, there isn't a spot for the phenom, and that should tell you how talented this Marlins offense can be.

Fredi's Bullpen Management A Problem

It was a tough meltdown to watch last night. The Marlins scored early and disappeared late, but games like that happen, and with a bullpen like the Marlins', no lead is safe.

The real problem, though, was Fredi's use of his rested bullpen. Monday was an off-day, the performances turned in by Nolasco and Robertson gave the bullpen basically a weekend off. Why then were the Marlins on the short end of a 7-4 decision having used only 2 pitchers: starter Chris Volstad and then Tim Wood for an ill-advised 2 innings of work.

The bigger problem, though is the way Fredi uses his bullpen; last night, other than Wood, the only other reliever Fredi got up was Renyel Pinto. This isn't anything new, Marlins fans know that Fredi has his favorites and sticks with them to a fault. The real problem goes deeper than playing favorites, the real problem is that the Marlins have a bad bullpen and Fredi is too hesitant to pull a struggling reliever out. Wood clearly didn't have it last night in the 7th, yet Fredi stuck with him for the fateful 8th, much the way he stuck with Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, Jorge Julio and the litany of relievers we've run through here the past several years.

Fredi's old school bullpen management is beneficial when a few alpha relievers rise above the rest of the bullpen, look at Joe Torre's successful Yankee teams or Bobby Cox's mid 90's Braves teams, but the Marlins don't have that luxury. The 7 arms in the bullpen, handedness excluded, are basically all of interchangeable quality, except for the recent emergence of Clay Hensley and what appears to be a more confident Leo Nunez. Fredi needs to learn to get away from a struggling reliever rather than allowing him to try to work it out on the mound. The team has been very fortunate with the performance of their rotation to this point, Fredi can't allow the bullpen to keep handing games away because he stuck with "his guy" too long.

Marlins Pass Early Season Test

Roy Halladay, Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels. In Philadelphia, without Josh Johnson getting a start in the series. Yes, I too shuddered at what could have been a terrifying weekend series. Instead, the Marlins rolled into Philadelphia, scored 13 runs in the three game series and took two out of three from Philadelphia, who, until Friday, were feasting on the Nationals and Astros en route to their 7-1 start.

The Phillies could not have set this early season division showdown up any better: Halladay and Hamels, their two best pitchers, were bookending Marlin killer Jamie Moyer, combining that with the hottest offense in baseball seemed to be a sure recipe for success.

The Marlins, however, looked like the superior team, winning big (5-1 on Saturday behind a brilliant Ricky Nolasco start) winning close (2-0 on Sunday) and never quitting (8-6 in defeat, but scoring 5 runs in the final 2 innings), and showing flashes of the playoff team ownership has envisioned.

It was a true test of this Marlins club's mettle, and they passed with flying colors.

To be sure, there are still plenty of questions for the team: can the bullpen find a way to bridge those middle innings, is there a true lefty-specialist and can they find some defensive consistency? For now though, Marlins fans should be proud of their team: they went into Philadelphia and served notice that the division race should be a lot of fun this year.

Early Season Roster Shakeup

A little late to the party, so I'm sure this is old news to everyone, but in case you missed it, reliever Jose Veras has been designated for assignment and infielder/outfielder/out-maker Emilio Bonifacio has been optioned to AAA. Chris Leroux has been recalled from AAA and Brett Carroll came off the 15 day disabled list to fill the newly opened roster spots.

The moves came after a closed door meeting following last night's game; the meeting was reported by both the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, with both characterizing it as a personnel meeting.

Thus far, it doesn't appear any other moves are forthcoming, and by all indications the meeting not only took place in manager Fredi Gonzalez' office, but with him as an involved party; still, keep checking that temperature under Fredi's seat, things may be getting hot in a hurry.

Time To Worry About Coghlan?

0-6; 1; 0.

Now, time for an explanation: 0-6 is pretty straightforward, it was Coghlan's line last night. The first time he got at least 5 AB's this season and did not record a hit.

The 1 is Coghlan's walk total this season, 33 AB'S, 1 walk...a tidy .176 OBP.

The 0 is Coghlan's extra-base hit total this season; 5 hits, all singles.

Yes, it's only been a week, and yes, if anyone had a 5/33 stretch in, oh say, June, everyone just calls it a bad stretch and moves on.

Here's the problem though, it's not bad luck, it's not a "slow start." Coming out of the gate cold does not mean a slow start, slow starts are usually associated with hard luck outs and players who are excelling in other areas offensively (say, hitting for power but no average, or walking a decent amount); quite simply, there's a difference between a "slow start" and a "bad start."

Coghlan's advocates, and believe me, I'm one, point to his 2009 when he wrapped up his first big league month hitting .219 over his first 66 AB's; however, this oversimplification neglects that despite only hitting .219, he was walking a ton en route to a .354 OBP in the same frame, and, ultimately, OBP is the key; it isn't 1977 anymore, people understand the key isn't recording hits, it's not making an out.

As far as the lack of power, Coghlan's not asked to be a power hitter, but when you bat lefty, call Sunlife Stadium home, and had your only road series thus far in cavernous Citi Field, it's hard to not luck into one extra base hit. What is most troubling, though, is that the way teams have attacked Coghlan have all been the same (and this is three now: the Mets, the Dodgers and now the Reds): soft stuff on the outside corner. What's more, it appears that the Marlins coaches are aware of this and yet, Coghlan's been unable to make the adjustment. It's easy for me to sit here and say he needs to cheat on the breaking ball, but every major league hitter knows he needs to honor the fastball. And, given the pendulum like nature of a left-hander's swing, lefties are traditional more vulnerable to an up-and-in fastball, so for Coghlan to exclusively look away would open, potentially, more holes than it would fix.

To be unequivocally clear: it's only 33 AB's, it's hardly time to panic and, really, the only thing to do now is hope that Coghlan can adjust to the new approaches teams are taking towards him. However, to call this merely a slow start overlooks what makes a player valuable, and what a player can do right that doesn't necessarily translate into the all too often used batting average stat, as, with Coghlan right now, the problems run far deeper than his .152 average.

Thoughts From the First Week

Seven days, six games and a ton of bad bullpen innings behind us, the Marlins stand at 4-2, winners of both series to start the year. As an historical footnote, this is the third time in franchise history the Marlins have had an opening series against the Dodgers, and the first time they've won the series ('93 and '95 being the other two).

Here are some stream of consciousness thoughts from the first week:

The bullpen is awful. Far worse than I thought, and I wasn't a fan to begin with. At least they are showing their shortcomings now, rather than August, so the team can go shop for upgrades (yes, I snickered when I wrote that as I'm sure you did when you read it).

Pitching usually comes in ahead of the hitting, so it is somewhat encouraging that our offense and our rotation are both looking strong. Volstad pitched well on Friday, ditto Anibal on Sunday; crazy to think the worst showing so far has been from JJ, and he'll turn it around, the illness in the spring is likely playing a role in the slow start.

I'm glad the out of town scoreboard is back in some capacity. I miss the teal tower, but Friday and Saturday were tough with the odd "ring" scoreboard. Now the upperdeck facade serves a greater purpose than reminding us the Dolphins' glory days are well behind them.

Home Opener Is Here

After taking 2/3 from the Mets to start the year, the Marlins return home tonight to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2010 home opener. Chris Volstad gets the nod for the Marlins while Hiroki Kuroda gets the start for LA.

The opening series against the Mets might be too small a sampling to declare anything definitive, but some in Marlin land are already quite nervous about the bullpen. As bad as the pen was in surrendering a 5 run lead (and make no mistake, 9 walks is all kinds of awful); the guilty parties were two guys (Jose Veras, Renyel Pinto) who, to be kind, were not going to be very good this year anyway. Veras is on his 3rd team in a year and the Marlins spent much of the offseason desperately offering Pinto around only to find there was no interest. Leo Nunez is still the same guy who is either lights out or an iron mike machine, and the juxtaposition of Wednesday and Thursday reenforce that.

For me, the most troubling thing was how long Fredi stuck with relievers that clearly didn't have "it.". We carry 12 pitchers for a reason, use them.

Beyond the strategy of the situation, nothing that was done during the Wednesday meltdown was all that egregious, nor surprising. Hopefully it just means we see a lot less of Pinto and Veras as a pseudo-set-up staff.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter: Twitter.com/firstplacefish

5 Thoughts from Opening Day

After a wonderful afternoon at Citi field (and really, it was wonderful until the score went final) here are some thoughts after allowing first impressions to sink in:

1. Hanley has really focused on continuing to improve his defense. His 2009 campaign aimed to end calls for a position switch, yet Hanley maintained in the offseason that he could get even better. After a strong throw in the hole (something he could always get to but seldom complete) and a spectacular diving catch leading to an unassisted double play, I am anxious to see if the defense sticks around.

2. A lot of our starters didn't get enough spring AB's and it showed. Only Gaby Sanchez was consistently working the count, and while it was Johan Santana, perhaps the best in the biz at making hitters look over matched, the Marlins gave away far too many at-bats after working them into hitter's counts. It's axiomatic to say pitching comes in ahead of the hitting, so let's reevaluate in a few weeks.

3. Cameron Maybin still has a lot of growing to do. I'll give him a pass for the 0/4 with 3 K's (all swinging....what appeared to be a garden hose) because it was Santana, but the defense cannot slump like that. Even he knew what kind of trouble he was having because by the end of the game, he was playing so shallow that he was practically playing infield. Have a rough day, that's fine, it happens, but you can't let it alter your game; that's a troubling sign that he'll over compensate to that degree.

4. Gaby Sanchez needs to work on his footwork to stick at 1B. His failure to stretch in the first for what should have been a double play lead immediately to an extra run on the David Wright homer, and he held the bag too much instead of reacting to the ball (on the second overthrow especially). We all know Gaby is a work in progress, but usually that implies some degree of progress actually being made.

5. Citi Field still needs some work. The warning track was whipping sand in the wind all afternoon; I was hoping an outfielder would show up on a camel. This was the first time I sat in the "VIP" seats in the lower level (my third time at Citi overall) and I was amazed by the amenities that go into the section, very neat, too bad no one working knew what to do and it took forever just to get a beer. I never thought I'd say it, but the ability and competence of our humble home field staff laps that of their New York brethren.

And let's not forget, the opener didn't come at home, it was on the road in front of a group of fans that was ready to turn into a lynch mob should the home team fall behind early; they went so far as to loudly boo the coaching staff, and, since they at least have a sense of humor, the training staff. Give the Mets credit for capturing that emotion and playing with a sense of urgency. They struck first, fast, and never looked back. Yes, both teams need a hot start to keep their respective manager's job safe, but the Mets had the added pressure of playing in front of a demanding group of fans that weren't even going to allow for an opening day honeymoon.

It's too bad there isn't a game today to get that awful taste out of our mouths, but when the schedule resumes, Ricky Nolasco will be on the mound to see if his torrid spring can carry over.

2010 NL East Preview

In just about 24 hours, the Marlins, Phillies, Nationals and Mets will all be underway (and head to head with each other) officially kicking off the 2010 NL schedule; the Braves join the fun at 4 with a home opener against the Cubs. Before the 162 game marathon begins tomorrow, here is my somewhat detailed breakdown of the division:

1 - Phillies (Expected record: 94-68)

The Phillies are coming off back to back trips to the World Series (including a title in '08) and have only gotten stronger this offseason adding perhaps the best pitcher on the planet in Roy Halladay. Halladay did cost them, in a roundabout way, brief rotation stalwart Cliff Lee, so the Phillies lost out on assembling a potential juggernaut to instead have what should be one of the best two teams in the National League (St. Louis the other)

Key Player: Placido Polanco. Yes, we know all about Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, but Polanco is coming back to Philly to try to stabilize a position, third base, that has routinely been the Achilles heel for an otherwise potent lineup. If Polanco bring his typical mid-to high .300's OBP with him, the Phillies' everyday lineup will likely feature only one player (Jimmy Rollins) with an OBP below .330. Put another way: filthy.

What Could Go Wrong: Since their back-to-back World Series run, the Phillies have been the healthiest team in baseball by a pretty wide margin. Not only are they the only team to have lost fewer than 1,000 player DL days in that two year stretch, they're below 800. Now, their players aren't preparing their AARP membership applications yet, but Shane Victorino will be the only every day player under 30 in 2010, and he'll just sneak by at 29. The Phillies do have some tough players who have demonstrated a willingness to play through injury, like Chase Utley, but at some point, this remarkably healthy streak has to end. And, while the Phillies are exceptionally top heavy, their depth leaves much to be desired both on the bench and at high levels in the minors; quite simply, among the top 3 teams in the NL East, they are perhaps the worst equipped to internally address a prolonged injury.

Also, don't forget the bullpen. Brad Lidge is still down there, and while they upgraded the rotation considerably, they lost a bullpen ace in Chan Ho Park (I know, it feels just as weird to write it as I'm sure it is to read it) and in some order will have to count on Lidge, Myers and Romero a lot more than I think they would like.

Final Verdict: Unless Howard or Halladay misses substantial time, they're the best team in the division by a pretty sizable margin. This may be their final year of "dominance" as the Marlins and Braves are substantially younger and potentially deeper, but no team in the division can match the Phillies' lineup and, over the course of a regular season, offense wins.


2 - Florida Marlins (Expected record: 88-74, Wild Card winner)

The Marlins locked up Josh Johnson to a 4 year deal, and, somewhat surprisingly kept the entire 2009 team (save Jeremy Hermida and Nick Johnson) together for a front office mandated playoff run in 2010. While they didn't spend to bring in a free agent (every newcomer came in as a non-roster invitee) the core they have, at least on offense, is talented and still blossoming.

Key Player: Dan Uggla. The Marlins' highest paid player in 2010 ($7.8 million) will need to have a strong bounce back year after 2009 saw his average drop precipitously. If the eye he demonstrated in '09 carries over to '10, and the average can improve, Uggla could find himself with the NL All-Stars in Anaheim. More importantly, an improved season from Uggla gives the Marlins middle of the lineup depth behind Hanley Ramirez.

The Marlins 3rd starter (and whoever you are, please stand up) gets an honorable mention, but right now, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, Nate Robertson are basically the same kind of pitcher and it's not that one needs to step up, really, all of them do. However, if one does blossom into a complimentary 3rd starter to the Johnson-Nolasco dynamic duo, the Marlins really could push the Phillies for the division title.

What Could Go Wrong: Injuries are a concern, but the Marlins do have minor league depth in Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, plus not too far off Matt Dominguez, and a plethora of second tier guys like Brian Petersen and Scott Cousins. The biggest thing that could go wrong is Ricky Nolasco having another season where he walks no one but gives up a ton of extra base hits. If we see the Nolasco that gets pounded for 7 runs on 9 hits, as we did in much of the first half, this team is in real trouble. There aren't any pitchers in the pipeline ready to step into the rotation, and there are even fewer with the strikeout upside Ricky has (Andrew Miller is the only strikeout pitcher in the system above A, and even then, we know Andrew Miller).

Final Verdict: Uncharacteristically, ownership and the front office are making it known they expect a playoff run in 2010. As constructed, there is talent at just about every position, or waiting for a chance in the minors. Combining that organizational depth with all-world talent like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson makes the Marlins a potentially dangerous team in 2010.

3 - Atlanta Braves (Expected record: 85 -77)

The Braves are the talk of baseball this spring because of the talented youth in their camp, and legendary manager Bobby Cox announcing that this will be his final season on the bench. This combination of potential and nostalgia has made the Braves the sentimental pick for the NL Wild-Card among most writers and analysts.

Key Player: Troy Glaus. Glaus came to Atlanta after basically missing 2009 due to injury, and not only is he expected to rebound, he is expected to anchor the middle of the Braves' lineup as the righty power bat separating Brian McCann and Chipper Jones. Glaus has had to move across the diamond, from third to first, but the hope in Atlanta is that while he may not be familiar with the position, the typically less physically taxing "grind" at first may help keep him fresher in 2010. While his days as a 30 homer masher might be past him, if healthy Glaus should still chip in 20-something homers and a mid 800's OPS. Pretty formidable numbers.

What Could Go Wrong: The Braves are hanging a tremendous amount of expectations on two youngsters: Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. For Hanson, who had a marvelous rookie season highlighted by a 1.18 WHIP and 8.2 K/9, the expectation is that he emerges, at 23, as the staff ace, or at least the 1A behind Tim Hudson (who himself has injury concerns). If this Braves team had retained Javy Vazquez, yes, they'd be terrifying, but with Javy now in New York, the Braves are asking a lot out of Hanson with little track record to show it as a certainty.

In Heyward, the Braves have the widely regarded #1 prospect in all of baseball. His lefty swings have drawn comparisons to Fred McGriff, Cliff Floyd and....Hank Aaron. Wait a minute...Hank Aaron; yep, Bobby Cox said so himself. Now, I'm all for seeing the potential in a player, but a 20 year old, who has never hit more than 13 homers or 25 doubles at any minor league level, is expected to come in and be the new Ken Griffey Junior? In the limited AB's I have seen of Heyward, I see a strong hitter for average, but I don't see otherworldly power on a consistent basis. Whether the hyperbole meets reality is somewhat irrelevant: what is important to remember is that the Braves lineup is pretty bland, and much of the runaway hype for them as the presumed wild-card team is based on Heyward arriving with 30 homers in tow; something I just cannot see happening.

Final Verdict: Chipper and Hudson miss some time with injury, Heyward is very good just not other-wordly, and the Braves come up just short in their bid for the playoffs.

4. Washington Nationals (74-88)

The Nationals also had their fair share of spring publicity with phenom Stephen Strasburg tearing through the grapefruit league, many people, myself included, believe Strasburg is the best rotation pitcher the Nationals have, but he's beginning the year at AA.

Key Player: Adam Dunn. The big fella is in a contract year; he's expressed a desire to stay in Washington and the Nationals are taking a wait and see approach, mostly regarding his position switch to first base. Players generally play well when playing for a contract, and Dunn, who just missed extending his 40 homer streak last year when he finished with 39, should have another prodigious power season, driving the Nationals offense behind Ryan Zimmerman.

What Could Go Wrong: Well, they're not really aiming for the playoffs, and they're in year 2 of an aggressive rebuild through the draft (Strasburg) and free agency (Dunn, Ivan Rodriguez). The worst thing that could happen is keeping a non-essential piece of the core past the trade deadline trying to finish closer to .500.

Final Verdict: I like their staff, a lot. By far the deepest rotation in the East, and their second half rotation (Strasburg, John Lannon, Chien Ming Wang, Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez) is fun to think about, especially when you figure that for '11, Jordan Zimmerman should be back from Tommy John surgery. The future is very bright in Washington, but right now, they're still at least a year away.

5 - New York Mets (72-90)

Disaster probably comes up just a bit short when describing the Mets' 2009; they lost players to injuries, their franchise player (David Wright) openly criticized their new home park (and forgot how to hit for power), their assistant GM took of his shirt and offered to fight a top prospect, their GM accused beat writers of trying to take his job, and Johan Santana had to have surgery. All in all, not what you would call a season you can build off of.

Flash forward to 2010 and Carlos Beltran has had surgery, allegedly, against team wishes, Jose Reyes is out with what may be a thyroid issue (though no one's really talking) and they still play their home games in a ballpark that makes Yellowstone look cozy.

Key Player: David Wright. Baseball's former 'it' boy needs to recapture the power stroke that made him a key player during the Mets short lived renaissance. What's most peculiar about Wright is that his homers dropped, from 33 in '08 to 10 in '09, yet his doubles didn't change, his average didn't improve, yet he struck out considerably more over 120 (140) for the first time in his career. Some may call it an aberration, but to me, it's more than that, his power totals didn't improve on the road (8 all year), which is something you'd expect if the home ballpark is a problem, his doubles didn't improve, which you'd think to be the case if he's hitting balls that come up "just short" and he now really looks like a leadoff hitter when the Mets very desperately need a 3-hole anchor.

What Could Go Wrong: In honor of the Mets' 2009, it could more appropriately reworded as "what won't go wrong?" All kidding aside, before the season even opens, the Mets have lost two of their most important players (Reyes, Beltran) to the DL and their rotation behind Johan Santana has not gotten better. Since Adam Wainwright ended the Mets' 2006 season on a 3-2 curveball, this franchise has been snakebitten and unlucky, and it doesn't look like that's going to change this year.

Final Verdict: If Beltran were healthy, I would love their chances, but he isn't, and given the nature of his injury (hip labrum) and his style of play, you have to wonder if he'll ever be the same player again. Beyond that, Santana is spectacular, newcomer Jason Bay is solid, but there is so much bad hanging over this team, you really can't understate that. A slow start likely causes a top down clean-out, and with that kind of turnover, it's hard to imagine anyone on the team looking forward to the dog days of August as nothing more than the dysfunctional black sheep to the cross town Yankees.

Spring Training Officially A Wrap

And just like that, 7 weeks of training are done and the regular season beckons. Tomorrow the Yankees and Red Sox kick it off in primetime in Boston in what should be a scintillating start to the 2010 season.

On the home front, the Marlins ended the spring today in a loss against their Greensboro affiliate that saw Anibal Sanchez have a rough outing punctuated by a Kyle Skipworth (remember him?) homer. The team will head to New York tonight to prepare for their Monday opener with the Mets.

Continuing an unfortunately ongoing theme, the Marlins had to DL reliever Brian Sanches and still wait with bated breath to see if Cody Ross can go on Monday.

Tomorrow I hope to have a comprehensive NL East preview up (as a follow up to my MLB preview) to have everyone really get in the mood for opening day.