The Great Marlins What If

The Marlins have seen many great players come, and especially go, in their 15 years of existence, but no event is more famous than the great teardown after the 1997 World Series. Even today, a healthy number of regulars from that squad still have a major league job, so, naturally, I couldn’t help but wonder what would the state of the Marlins be had that team been given a fair chance at defending their title. To me, the ’97 fire sale may not simply be the biggest event in Marlins history, but also one of the three or four most important events in baseball over the last two decades. The fire sale directly fueled two World Series berths for National League teams (’98 Padres, ’00 Mets) accounted for an 18 game improvement in a perennial mid 90’s division power (Astros) and, for all intents and purposes, created an opportunity for not one but two future World Series MVP’s to prove their worth (Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell). Here’s my take on how the baseball landscape would have changed had the ’97 team been given a chance to defend their title.

Several assumptions have to be made: 1) the Marlins would still have to pare payroll from ’97-’98, 2) Dave Dombrowski, Jim Leyland and the scouting department would not be dismissed to pare payroll, and 3) for the life of the long term deals negotiated prior to ’97, the Marlins would not be major players in free agency.

First, in terms of cutting payroll, perhaps the safest casualty to assume would be Kevin Brown. He was a mercenary in Florida, his agent was Scott Boras and his walk year was ’98. Assuming the Marlins and Dave Dombrowski come to the same conclusion: that the Padres were the best fit for a Brown trade, and that the Marlins don’t play a game of hardball to get the prospect they really wanted from the Padres (Matt Clement) not much is changed in Marlins land; Derrek Lee, the slick fielding first baseman, is the primary return for Kevin Brown and a staple in the Marlins lineup for the better part of 5 years.

Continuing the cutting payroll theme, let’s assume the Marlins still deal Devon White to the Diamondbacks for no return of note. In terms of 1998 salary, the Brown and White trades save the Marlins in excess of $8 million. That, I think, is a fair place to draw the line. Remember, in 1997, average player payroll was $1.3 million, and three teams (Montreal, Oakland, Pittsburgh) had team payrolls under $20 million.

The Marlins would replace White with Mark Kotsay in center-field and have an outfield of Kotsay, Moises Alou in left and Gary Sheffield in right. In retaining Alou and Sheffield, the Marlins directly change the future of the Astros (who received Alou from the Marlins) the Dodgers (who came away with Sheffield) and the Mets (who got Mike Piazza from the Dodgers by way of a one week layover with the Marlins).

The Astros won their division in 1997 and again in 1998, but with Alou complimenting the lethal Jeff Bagwell, the 1998 team won the division in much more convincing fashion, with Alou chipping in 38 home-runs and 124 RBI’s in what stands as his best season as a professional. Would the Astros still have replicated their 1998 success? It’s possible, considering they acquired Randy Johnson at the 1998 deadline, and he was an inhuman 10-1 with the Astros. The Astros and their incredibly strong rotation would likely have repeated as division champions, and in the end, they lost in the division series to eventual pennant winner San Diego and did not do anything of tremendous note during Alou’s three seasons in Houston. With or without Alou, the Astros are still anchored by future Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio and a rotation featuring Darryl Kile, Jose Lima and Mike Hampton. Had the Astros made noise in the post-season, this would be a more interesting examination, but for simplicity’s sake, let’s just assume the Astros, without Alou, still make the playoffs and get beaten in the first round.

Gary Sheffield, however, presents a much more intriguing situation. Yes, the Marlins opened ’98 with him in right field, and yes, if you believe the accounts of the events opening the ’98 season, the Marlins all along intended to have Sheffield be the anchor of their rebuilding and he asked for the trade, but his trade to the Dodgers, and Piazza’s subsequent trade to the Mets drastically reshaped the National League. The Marlins-Dodgers blockbuster from May of ’98 still stands as one of the largest and most unexpected blockbusters of the last decade. It saw arguably the National League’s top two players exchanged for one another and saw the Dodgers also add an all-star catcher in Charles Johnson, all-star third baseman in Bobby Bonilla and a quality left handed bat in Jim Eisenreich. Still, the Dodgers never once made the playoffs in Sheffield’s tenure, despite having a winning record in all but one of those seasons (’99).

The Mets, on the other hand, gained perhaps the most from this trade, and owe much of their late ‘90’s success to the Marlins fire sale. They obtained Piazza for well below his actual value from the Marlins and also added Al Leiter in an off-season trade prior to the ’98 season. From 1998 through 2004, Leiter and Piazza led the Mets in ERA and OPS in all but one (2003) of those six seasons they spent together. In that span, the Mets twice appeared in the playoffs and once won the National League pennant (2000).

Of course, the Mets have the resources to outspend almost all other competitors, and under Doubleday and then the Wilpons, the Mets have time and again demonstrated a willingness to do so, but were it not for the Marlins fire sale, it is almost assured that they would not have added Mike Piazza until he hit free agency, and given Piazza’s loyal nature, it’s possible that would have never happened while Piazza was still an elite player. Therefore, the Mets still would have likely been a good team from 1998-2004, but they would be without the players who would be their best batter and pitcher, making it extremely unlikely they would be the elite team that won the 2000 National League Pennant. For the sake of our argument, let’s assume they’re unable to lure a big name pitcher in the 1998 off-season, meaning Kevin Brown still goes to Los Angeles and Randy Johnson still goes to Arizona, but they are able to lure a top power hitter like Mo Vaughn. That should give the Mets enough firepower to still keep them in the conversation.

Having looked at the two greatest beneficiaries of the Marlins fire sale, it is only reasonable to examine what the Marlins team would likely have been in the five-year span from 1998-2003. I chose to examine this period because Sheffield’s contract ran for the duration of this period, and most of, if not all of, the young players the Marlins used in ’97 and ’98 would have been club controlled meaning free agency does not enter the picture.

The Marlins rotation would have featured some combination of Livan Hernandez, Al Leiter and Ryan Dempster as the top 3. Thus, the notable casualties would have been Brad Penny (acquired from Arizona for Matt Mantei) Josh Beckett (the #2 overall pick in the ’99 draft) and AJ Burnett (acquired from the Mets for Al Leiter). Considering Leiter’s 95 wins in the span from 98-03 and Livan’s ability to throw north of 220 innings and win double digit games, it’s an ideal rotation for a team that would be built around offense, even if the names “lost” are sexier mainstays in the mind of Marlins fans. I assume Leiter, who makes his home in South Florida and Livan “love you” Miami, present easy renegotiations and the Marlins are happy to ensure they are at the top of their rotation through at least 2003.

The lineup is where the fun begins. Sheffield, Bonilla and Alou would have been, in some form, the 3-4-5 going forward and of those three, only Bonilla experienced a sharp decline in the years immediately following 1998. Waiting in the wings for the Marlins to take over at third base was highly regarded prospect Josh Booty. Booty, of course, would only play 13 major league games and return to college to quarterback the LSU Tigers. The Marlins still could have traded for Mike Lowell, but the players used to acquire Mike Lowell (notably Ed Yarnall) would not have been in the organization were it not for the Piazza trade consummated with the Mets. Eventually, though, Bonilla’s spot in the lineup becomes filled by Derrek Lee (assuming the Brown trade still happens) or Cliff Floyd and the Marlins lineup would never have missed a beat. The Marlins could sign a capable defense first third baseman, bat him 8th, and be just fine.

At the top of the order, Edgar Renteria, Craig Counsell and later Luis Castillo, would have formed both the middle infield and the 1-2 in the order. Conceivably, the Marlins could have still traded Edgar Renteria to make room for Alex Gonzalez, a defensive wizard, and had the middle infield that anchored the Marlins from 1999-2005. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Renteria is eventually traded, but not necessarily to the Cardinals, or for Braden Looper, because this trade will not be financially motivated. Under this scenario, the Marlins could have held onto Renteria for a season or two more until Gonzalez was truly “ready” and insisted on a greater return than just Braden Looper.

Rounding out the lineup would be Charles Johnson at catcher, one of Cliff Floyd or Jeff Conine at first base until Derrek Lee is ready to take over and Mark Kotsay in center giving the Marlins an expected 1-8 of: Castillo, Renteria, Sheffield, Alou, Bonilla, Floyd/Conine, Johnson and Kotsay. With perennial 30 homerun hitter Derrek Lee waiting in the wings, most would be hard pressed to argue against that lineup scoring around 900 runs a season. As a final note to the lineup, Dave Dombrowski was the GM who signed Miguel Cabrera, and there is reason to believe that he would make another run at signing the Venezuelan slugger. Given the rapid deterioration of Bobby Bonilla, it may even be an absolute certainty that Cabrera would be brought into the fold.

Reshuffling the drafts from 1999-2003 is quite interesting. Assuming the Marlins finish with winning records in each of those seasons, the Marlins would lose Josh Beckett (99) Adrian Gonzalez (00) and Jeremy Hermida (02) but would not lose their first round pick in 2001 for signing Charles Johnson since he would have never left in the first place. Some names the Marlins could have selected in the late first rounds of those drafts: Adam Wainwright, Chase Utley, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Jeff Francoeur, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman and Aaron Heilman. Suffice to say, there was talent to be had, and with the exception of Josh Beckett, no one player lost would be truly irreplaceable by any of the aforementioned names.

So where does that leave the Marlins? Well, with a franchise changing middle of the lineup bat staying in Florida (Sheffield) and another not going to New York (Piazza) it’s a fairly safe assumption that the Marlins would have been the perennial wild-card contender that the Mets were from 98-00 and with such an elite offense carrying a capable pitching staff, there’s every reason to believe the team would have made the playoffs at least once or twice in that span.

It’s after the 2000 season that things start to get interesting. Would the emergence of Cliff Floyd and Derrek Lee have pushed some regulars like Alou out the door in a move to replenish an aging rotation? Let’s say Alou’s dealt in 2001, a completely reasonable assumption since 2001 would have been the last year of the five year deal he signed with the Marlins, and in return for Alou, the Marlins are able to get one very good young starter. That means from 2001-2003 the Marlins reloaded their rotation with Leiter, Livan, the starter from the Alou trade, Dempster and a fifth starter like Jesus Sanchez. Also remember, that from 2001-2003 the National League East as a division was exceptionally poor, as no team broke 90 wins in 2001, and in 2002 and 2003 only the Braves won over 90 games. Realistically, the 2001 incarnation of the team could have taken the division without much trouble assuming the starter from the Alou trade was ready to contribute immediately and that Lee and Floyd became the 30 homer players they were with the real 2001 Marlins.

In 2002 and 2003 age, service clocks and expiring contracts could be unkind to the Marlins. Renteria would no longer be under club control if he were still with the team and not traded to make room for Alex Gonzalez, Livan Hernandez and Luis Castillo would be in their final season of arbitration in 2003, and Sheffield would be in his final year of his contract as well. Assuming Floyd signs an extension with the team similar to what he actually signed, 2002 would be his final contract year, leaving Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera as the lone all-star quality players club controlled beyond the 2003 season (and in this scenario Cabrera may not have even debuted until well after the 2003 season). Still, it remains likely that Dombrowski would at least retain Sheffield, if not most of the departing players. Should these years truly turn “lean” the Marlins would have obtained, ironically, many of the high quality young players Dombrowski drafted in Detroit, or in other words, Justin Verlander, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller.

To conclude, it appears that the Marlins would have been in perennial contention from 98-02, and almost certainly the division winner in 2001. I’m not entirely sure they would have been able to dethrone any of the Yankee teams that won in that time span, and Arizona almost certainly would have beaten the 2001 team in a five game division series match up, as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling would have been too much to overcome.

Thus, I feel the Marlins are good enough to make the playoffs as the wild card in ‘98 (90 wins) and the division winner in 2001 (88 wins). The Mets won the wild card in both 1999 and 2000, but had the ’97 fire sale not happened, the Mets almost certainly would not have had Piazza and Leiter anchor those teams. Still, even with the Mets out of the picture, the Reds and their 96 wins still would have taken the ’99 wild card. I’m not prepared to declare the ’99 Marlins (probably their ugliest year in this hypothetical since Bonilla almost certainly would be “done” and Lee and Floyd are still at least a year away from being a capable fifth place hitter) capable of winning 96 games or more.

In 2000, the Mets cruised to the wild card with 94 wins, with the Dodgers finishing second with 86. I definitely think that by 2000, the lineup would have replaced the drop-off in production from Bonilla and that the Marlins would have been capable of winning 92-96 games, definitely enough to win the wild card, even if you put Piazza back on the Dodgers and say they win 90.

Thus, the Marlins would have had three playoff appearances in that span, been a coin-flip in 2001 with the Cardinals for the wild card and probably not have been able to keep pace with the 2002 Giants for the wild card, although removing Sheffield’s potent bat from the 2002 Braves and leaving him on the Marlins may make for an interesting pennant race in 2002. The Braves were coming off of their weakest record (88 wins) as division champs in the 5-year stretch from 1997-2001 and the addition of Sheffield in the ’01 off-season was basically their only key move. Still, Sheffield did not top 30 homeruns nor 100 RBI’s in the 2002 season, so to attribute a 13 game improvement to one player who had a sub par year is probably erroneous. Thus, I do not think it is fair to say that the Marlins would have topped the 2002 Braves (101 wins) for the division, even with Sheffield in South Florida and not Atlanta.

Where does that leave the Marlins had this scenario played out over their real life counterparts? They likely have four playoff appearances (’97, ’98, ’00 and ’01) and probably knock off the 2000 Yankees for the World Series because the Marlins would have the lethal infusion of hungry youth and capable veterans.

Ultimately, in terms of hardware, not much would be changed in Marlins land, but it would make Miami a much more desirable free agent destination. Having handicapped myself saying that the Marlins could not be a major free agent player while Sheffield and Alou were under contract, that restriction may have been too drastic as Florida’s lack of state-income tax and the fact that many athletes call Florida home in the offseason could have lead many to the contending Marlins for well below market value, which in turn could push the Marlins consistently over the 100 win threshold and into perennial World Series favorite status. Truthfully, that only affects the post 2000 teams as the rotation would probably need some reworking behind an aging Leiter and Charles Johnson would probably have worn down considerably because of the Florida heat.

Having looked this over now for really the first time, I am ready to say that the Mets had far more to lose from the fire sale not happening than the Marlins had to gain. To Dombrowski’s credit, he crafted a perfect “phoenix” that rose from the fire sale’s ashes. Had 2003 never happened, my conclusion would be different, but for how much I loved that 1997 team, the would-be dynasty was simply the victim of poor timing, coinciding with the Yankees newest dynasty and the strongest Braves teams of their divisional run, save for 2001. The continual winning seasons would have been nice, but as the cliché goes, “they don’t mean a thing without the ring.”