2010 NL East Preview

In just about 24 hours, the Marlins, Phillies, Nationals and Mets will all be underway (and head to head with each other) officially kicking off the 2010 NL schedule; the Braves join the fun at 4 with a home opener against the Cubs. Before the 162 game marathon begins tomorrow, here is my somewhat detailed breakdown of the division:

1 - Phillies (Expected record: 94-68)

The Phillies are coming off back to back trips to the World Series (including a title in '08) and have only gotten stronger this offseason adding perhaps the best pitcher on the planet in Roy Halladay. Halladay did cost them, in a roundabout way, brief rotation stalwart Cliff Lee, so the Phillies lost out on assembling a potential juggernaut to instead have what should be one of the best two teams in the National League (St. Louis the other)

Key Player: Placido Polanco. Yes, we know all about Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, but Polanco is coming back to Philly to try to stabilize a position, third base, that has routinely been the Achilles heel for an otherwise potent lineup. If Polanco bring his typical mid-to high .300's OBP with him, the Phillies' everyday lineup will likely feature only one player (Jimmy Rollins) with an OBP below .330. Put another way: filthy.

What Could Go Wrong: Since their back-to-back World Series run, the Phillies have been the healthiest team in baseball by a pretty wide margin. Not only are they the only team to have lost fewer than 1,000 player DL days in that two year stretch, they're below 800. Now, their players aren't preparing their AARP membership applications yet, but Shane Victorino will be the only every day player under 30 in 2010, and he'll just sneak by at 29. The Phillies do have some tough players who have demonstrated a willingness to play through injury, like Chase Utley, but at some point, this remarkably healthy streak has to end. And, while the Phillies are exceptionally top heavy, their depth leaves much to be desired both on the bench and at high levels in the minors; quite simply, among the top 3 teams in the NL East, they are perhaps the worst equipped to internally address a prolonged injury.

Also, don't forget the bullpen. Brad Lidge is still down there, and while they upgraded the rotation considerably, they lost a bullpen ace in Chan Ho Park (I know, it feels just as weird to write it as I'm sure it is to read it) and in some order will have to count on Lidge, Myers and Romero a lot more than I think they would like.

Final Verdict: Unless Howard or Halladay misses substantial time, they're the best team in the division by a pretty sizable margin. This may be their final year of "dominance" as the Marlins and Braves are substantially younger and potentially deeper, but no team in the division can match the Phillies' lineup and, over the course of a regular season, offense wins.


2 - Florida Marlins (Expected record: 88-74, Wild Card winner)

The Marlins locked up Josh Johnson to a 4 year deal, and, somewhat surprisingly kept the entire 2009 team (save Jeremy Hermida and Nick Johnson) together for a front office mandated playoff run in 2010. While they didn't spend to bring in a free agent (every newcomer came in as a non-roster invitee) the core they have, at least on offense, is talented and still blossoming.

Key Player: Dan Uggla. The Marlins' highest paid player in 2010 ($7.8 million) will need to have a strong bounce back year after 2009 saw his average drop precipitously. If the eye he demonstrated in '09 carries over to '10, and the average can improve, Uggla could find himself with the NL All-Stars in Anaheim. More importantly, an improved season from Uggla gives the Marlins middle of the lineup depth behind Hanley Ramirez.

The Marlins 3rd starter (and whoever you are, please stand up) gets an honorable mention, but right now, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, Nate Robertson are basically the same kind of pitcher and it's not that one needs to step up, really, all of them do. However, if one does blossom into a complimentary 3rd starter to the Johnson-Nolasco dynamic duo, the Marlins really could push the Phillies for the division title.

What Could Go Wrong: Injuries are a concern, but the Marlins do have minor league depth in Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, plus not too far off Matt Dominguez, and a plethora of second tier guys like Brian Petersen and Scott Cousins. The biggest thing that could go wrong is Ricky Nolasco having another season where he walks no one but gives up a ton of extra base hits. If we see the Nolasco that gets pounded for 7 runs on 9 hits, as we did in much of the first half, this team is in real trouble. There aren't any pitchers in the pipeline ready to step into the rotation, and there are even fewer with the strikeout upside Ricky has (Andrew Miller is the only strikeout pitcher in the system above A, and even then, we know Andrew Miller).

Final Verdict: Uncharacteristically, ownership and the front office are making it known they expect a playoff run in 2010. As constructed, there is talent at just about every position, or waiting for a chance in the minors. Combining that organizational depth with all-world talent like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson makes the Marlins a potentially dangerous team in 2010.

3 - Atlanta Braves (Expected record: 85 -77)

The Braves are the talk of baseball this spring because of the talented youth in their camp, and legendary manager Bobby Cox announcing that this will be his final season on the bench. This combination of potential and nostalgia has made the Braves the sentimental pick for the NL Wild-Card among most writers and analysts.

Key Player: Troy Glaus. Glaus came to Atlanta after basically missing 2009 due to injury, and not only is he expected to rebound, he is expected to anchor the middle of the Braves' lineup as the righty power bat separating Brian McCann and Chipper Jones. Glaus has had to move across the diamond, from third to first, but the hope in Atlanta is that while he may not be familiar with the position, the typically less physically taxing "grind" at first may help keep him fresher in 2010. While his days as a 30 homer masher might be past him, if healthy Glaus should still chip in 20-something homers and a mid 800's OPS. Pretty formidable numbers.

What Could Go Wrong: The Braves are hanging a tremendous amount of expectations on two youngsters: Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. For Hanson, who had a marvelous rookie season highlighted by a 1.18 WHIP and 8.2 K/9, the expectation is that he emerges, at 23, as the staff ace, or at least the 1A behind Tim Hudson (who himself has injury concerns). If this Braves team had retained Javy Vazquez, yes, they'd be terrifying, but with Javy now in New York, the Braves are asking a lot out of Hanson with little track record to show it as a certainty.

In Heyward, the Braves have the widely regarded #1 prospect in all of baseball. His lefty swings have drawn comparisons to Fred McGriff, Cliff Floyd and....Hank Aaron. Wait a minute...Hank Aaron; yep, Bobby Cox said so himself. Now, I'm all for seeing the potential in a player, but a 20 year old, who has never hit more than 13 homers or 25 doubles at any minor league level, is expected to come in and be the new Ken Griffey Junior? In the limited AB's I have seen of Heyward, I see a strong hitter for average, but I don't see otherworldly power on a consistent basis. Whether the hyperbole meets reality is somewhat irrelevant: what is important to remember is that the Braves lineup is pretty bland, and much of the runaway hype for them as the presumed wild-card team is based on Heyward arriving with 30 homers in tow; something I just cannot see happening.

Final Verdict: Chipper and Hudson miss some time with injury, Heyward is very good just not other-wordly, and the Braves come up just short in their bid for the playoffs.

4. Washington Nationals (74-88)

The Nationals also had their fair share of spring publicity with phenom Stephen Strasburg tearing through the grapefruit league, many people, myself included, believe Strasburg is the best rotation pitcher the Nationals have, but he's beginning the year at AA.

Key Player: Adam Dunn. The big fella is in a contract year; he's expressed a desire to stay in Washington and the Nationals are taking a wait and see approach, mostly regarding his position switch to first base. Players generally play well when playing for a contract, and Dunn, who just missed extending his 40 homer streak last year when he finished with 39, should have another prodigious power season, driving the Nationals offense behind Ryan Zimmerman.

What Could Go Wrong: Well, they're not really aiming for the playoffs, and they're in year 2 of an aggressive rebuild through the draft (Strasburg) and free agency (Dunn, Ivan Rodriguez). The worst thing that could happen is keeping a non-essential piece of the core past the trade deadline trying to finish closer to .500.

Final Verdict: I like their staff, a lot. By far the deepest rotation in the East, and their second half rotation (Strasburg, John Lannon, Chien Ming Wang, Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez) is fun to think about, especially when you figure that for '11, Jordan Zimmerman should be back from Tommy John surgery. The future is very bright in Washington, but right now, they're still at least a year away.

5 - New York Mets (72-90)

Disaster probably comes up just a bit short when describing the Mets' 2009; they lost players to injuries, their franchise player (David Wright) openly criticized their new home park (and forgot how to hit for power), their assistant GM took of his shirt and offered to fight a top prospect, their GM accused beat writers of trying to take his job, and Johan Santana had to have surgery. All in all, not what you would call a season you can build off of.

Flash forward to 2010 and Carlos Beltran has had surgery, allegedly, against team wishes, Jose Reyes is out with what may be a thyroid issue (though no one's really talking) and they still play their home games in a ballpark that makes Yellowstone look cozy.

Key Player: David Wright. Baseball's former 'it' boy needs to recapture the power stroke that made him a key player during the Mets short lived renaissance. What's most peculiar about Wright is that his homers dropped, from 33 in '08 to 10 in '09, yet his doubles didn't change, his average didn't improve, yet he struck out considerably more over 120 (140) for the first time in his career. Some may call it an aberration, but to me, it's more than that, his power totals didn't improve on the road (8 all year), which is something you'd expect if the home ballpark is a problem, his doubles didn't improve, which you'd think to be the case if he's hitting balls that come up "just short" and he now really looks like a leadoff hitter when the Mets very desperately need a 3-hole anchor.

What Could Go Wrong: In honor of the Mets' 2009, it could more appropriately reworded as "what won't go wrong?" All kidding aside, before the season even opens, the Mets have lost two of their most important players (Reyes, Beltran) to the DL and their rotation behind Johan Santana has not gotten better. Since Adam Wainwright ended the Mets' 2006 season on a 3-2 curveball, this franchise has been snakebitten and unlucky, and it doesn't look like that's going to change this year.

Final Verdict: If Beltran were healthy, I would love their chances, but he isn't, and given the nature of his injury (hip labrum) and his style of play, you have to wonder if he'll ever be the same player again. Beyond that, Santana is spectacular, newcomer Jason Bay is solid, but there is so much bad hanging over this team, you really can't understate that. A slow start likely causes a top down clean-out, and with that kind of turnover, it's hard to imagine anyone on the team looking forward to the dog days of August as nothing more than the dysfunctional black sheep to the cross town Yankees.