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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Time To Worry About Coghlan?



0-6; 1; 0.

Now, time for an explanation: 0-6 is pretty straightforward, it was Coghlan's line last night. The first time he got at least 5 AB's this season and did not record a hit.

The 1 is Coghlan's walk total this season, 33 AB'S, 1 walk...a tidy .176 OBP.

The 0 is Coghlan's extra-base hit total this season; 5 hits, all singles.

Yes, it's only been a week, and yes, if anyone had a 5/33 stretch in, oh say, June, everyone just calls it a bad stretch and moves on.

Here's the problem though, it's not bad luck, it's not a "slow start." Coming out of the gate cold does not mean a slow start, slow starts are usually associated with hard luck outs and players who are excelling in other areas offensively (say, hitting for power but no average, or walking a decent amount); quite simply, there's a difference between a "slow start" and a "bad start."

Coghlan's advocates, and believe me, I'm one, point to his 2009 when he wrapped up his first big league month hitting .219 over his first 66 AB's; however, this oversimplification neglects that despite only hitting .219, he was walking a ton en route to a .354 OBP in the same frame, and, ultimately, OBP is the key; it isn't 1977 anymore, people understand the key isn't recording hits, it's not making an out.

As far as the lack of power, Coghlan's not asked to be a power hitter, but when you bat lefty, call Sunlife Stadium home, and had your only road series thus far in cavernous Citi Field, it's hard to not luck into one extra base hit. What is most troubling, though, is that the way teams have attacked Coghlan have all been the same (and this is three now: the Mets, the Dodgers and now the Reds): soft stuff on the outside corner. What's more, it appears that the Marlins coaches are aware of this and yet, Coghlan's been unable to make the adjustment. It's easy for me to sit here and say he needs to cheat on the breaking ball, but every major league hitter knows he needs to honor the fastball. And, given the pendulum like nature of a left-hander's swing, lefties are traditional more vulnerable to an up-and-in fastball, so for Coghlan to exclusively look away would open, potentially, more holes than it would fix.

To be unequivocally clear: it's only 33 AB's, it's hardly time to panic and, really, the only thing to do now is hope that Coghlan can adjust to the new approaches teams are taking towards him. However, to call this merely a slow start overlooks what makes a player valuable, and what a player can do right that doesn't necessarily translate into the all too often used batting average stat, as, with Coghlan right now, the problems run far deeper than his .152 average.

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